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There's a significantly elevated chance that a U.S. recession will begin within the next 12 months. The odds are roughly one in five, in fact, based on the unusually wide spread between the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index  and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index .Though you may regard a one-in-five chance as unlikely, you should know that the risk now is abnormally high. When the spread is above the historical median - as it is now, as you can see from the accompanying chart - the odds of a recession within the subsequent 12 months are three times higher than when the spread is below the median.Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. 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