Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
7 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1937 ET - Oil edges higher as traders assess new U.S. measures against Iran. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. is launching a new campaign to isolate Iran. Bessent said the U.S. was sanctioning more than 60 entities, individuals and vessels across the world. "China is the key," Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon says in an email. "Iranian crude exports have already fallen sharply because of the blockade, and Beijing is essentially the only significant buyer left," the senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis says. "Unless China materially reduces purchases further, the additional impact on Iranian oil revenues could be relatively limited," Leon adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.2% higher at $85.20 per barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)Oil edges higher as traders assess the U.S.' new measures against Iran. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. is launching a new campaign to isolate Iran. Bessent said the U.S. was sanctioning more than 60 entities, individuals and vessels across the world. "China is the key," Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon says in an email. "Iranian crude exports have already fallen sharply because of the blockade, and Beijing is essentially the only significant buyer left," the senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis says. "Unless China materially reduces purchases further, the additional impact on Iranian oil revenues could be relatively limited," Leon adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.2% higher at $85.20 per barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1719 ET - Increased scrutiny of artificial-intelligence data centers by state governments creates opportunities for electricity utilities that can overcome political hurdles and independent power producers that can build projects, according to industry analysts at Siebert Williams Shank. "Greater political scrutiny may reduce realized [AI-driven power demand], delay timing and raise execution risk, but data centers that survive may place greater value on electricity physically deliverable at their location," the financial-services firm's analysts say in a report. This will reward power producers that can move beyond their traditional operator role and become developers of bespoke projects, the analysts say. "For utilities, the opportunity remains substantial, but the risk-sharing model is changing," they add. "Rising political concerns around the socialization of AI specific infrastructure and risks increase the need for cost allocation frameworks." (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)

1532 ET - U.S. natural gas futures inch up with a few more weeks of hot weather-driven demand expected to support power-sector use. "Heat remains supportive across most of the South, but its concentration in less population-dense regions limits the national demand impact," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "LNG exports should provide additional demand as fall approaches, but rising supply may absorb a meaningful portion of that increase." Nymex natural gas settles up 0.3% at $2.782/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1531 ET - Oil futures lose ground after six straight sessions of gains as the U.S. launched a plan to sanction countries or companies that do business with Iran. "The immediate measures look less dramatic than the rhetoric," Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis, says in a note. Iranian oil exports are already down with the U.S. blockade and unless China reduces purchases further, the additional impact on Iranian oil revenues could be limited. "The biggest oil-market risk may not be the sanctions themselves, but Iran's response to them," he says. "Iran still has considerable capacity to disrupt everybody else's exports." WTI settles down 2.4% at $85.01 a barrel and Brent falls 2.4% to $92.17. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1430 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar rise despite a drop in oil prices accentuated by the U.S. plan to use economic sanctions against Iran. Rising oil prices had been behind a bonds selloff that pushed yields, particularly in the long end, to highs not seen since the financial crisis. But since the Treasury announced plans to buy back more long-dated securities last week, demand for bonds increased somewhat, keeping yields below recent highs. Sticky inflation and rising government debt keep bond investors on their toes, preventing a steeper fall. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2%. The 10-year is at 4.70%, up from an intraday low of 4.68%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1415 ET - Celestica's riding a wave of booming demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, which should support a new phase of growth for the hardware design and electronics manufacturing services company. In a report, UBS analysts upgrade the stock to buy from neutral and raise the price target to $430 from $410. They say that Celestica will benefit from strong AI-drive demand for high-speed Ethernet switching and specialized AI computing equipment. What's more, the company is supplying a 1.6 Terabit rack-scale solution for ChatGPT developer OpenAI. These factors should speed up Celestica's "revenue growth and, more importantly, EPS growth" in 2027. UBS In the longer term, the analysts project that compounded annual growth rate for revenue will be around 39% through 2029 "with upside potential." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1357 ET - Oil futures extend losses as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announces the plan to isolate Iran with sanctions against anyone doing business with the country. Although the sanctions are broader-reaching, much of the attention will be on the implications for Iran's oil exports, David Oxley of Capital Economics says in a note. Depending on whether the sanctions accelerate or delay a resolution to the conflict, they could still have a sizeable impact on the energy landscape, he says. "In practice, though, we suspect that the new package will have only a limited direct impact on Iranian energy flows in the short term" as most oil exports go to China which has not recognized U.S. sanctions in the past, Oxley adds. WTI is down 2.6% at $84.80 a barrel and Brent is down 2.5% at $92.99. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1346 ET - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the department is launching an "economic onslaught" against Iran's global financial connections. Beginning today, actions by the Treasury and other agencies will "tighten the noose" and block every potential source of revenue funding the IRGC, enforcing a "zero leakage" approach. Bessent said new sectoral sanctions target five of Iran's most vital lifelines in other countries: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. "I want to emphasize that we are spreading out across the world as we speak...you will see a wave of sanctions when you leave this meeting today, and you should expect that cadence to continue," Bessent said. Markets showed muted initial reaction to the press conference. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1024 ET - Heavyweight industrial and export-focused Canadian names are bearing the brunt of a sell-off as markets digest U.S. cross-border supply chain disruption. Among the biggest decliners are manufacturing and auto-parts stocks like Magna International, Linamar and also transformers and electrical equipment manufacturer Hammond Power Solutions, all of which face immediate headwinds under the non-CUSMA content penalties. Aerospace, materials and tech growth plays are also pulling back, including business-jet maker Bombardier, BlackBerry, specialty semiconductor producer 5N Plus and satellite maker MDA Space. Toronto indexes, however, remain flat as gains in mining, metals and financials offset the pressure. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1018 ET - European natural-gas prices climb 4% to their highest level in more than three years as traders grow increasingly concerned about supply ahead of winter. Asian demand continues to strengthen, adding to the challenge of replenishing European storage as buyers in the region attract LNG cargoes away from Europe. Storage levels currently stand at just 62%, leaving the region increasingly dependent on a mild winter to curb heating demand. In afternoon trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 4.2% at 68.61 euros a megawatt-hour. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0958 ET - Another rise in the U.K. energy price cap would more than offset Prime Minister Andy Burnham's move to cut tax on electricity bills, Thomas Pugh at RSM UK says in a note. Ofgem, the country's energy regulator, is expected to increase the price cap in October. This is likely to have a limited impact on headline inflation. "Ofgem's price cap is based on typical use for dual-fuel households, but some households will only use electricity, where prices will probably fall," Pugh says. But risks of higher energy inflation remain going into 2027. European gas storage is at a 10-year low, which could lift wholesale prices, Pugh says. "That would push household bills much higher in January, keeping inflation sticky in 2027."

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