Wall Street is split on Circle Internet Group after two firms issued clashing calls on the stock, with one aggressive downgrade pulling the stock lower.
The biggest blow came from Morgan Stanley as analysts cut their rating on shares of the stablecoin issuer to Underweight from Equal Weight and slashed its price target to $38 from $106.
Circle stock tumbled 5.5% to $59.16 on Monday, pacing toward its lowest close since February, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The world’s flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has declined 0.3% over the past 24 hours to $63,184.
The bearish thesis hinges on the assumption that there will be less USDC— USD Coin, a dollar-pegged crypto issued by Circle—in circulation over the next two years. The firm cut its 2027 and 2028 USDC circulation forecasts by 33% and 44%, respectively, pushing back against Circle’s target of 40% average annual growth through all market cycles.
“USDC has effectively not grown” since the third quarter of last year, analysts noted. Moreover, there has yet to be broader adoption of the digital currency as “utility beyond remittances and stablecoin-linked card spending has yet to gain meaningful traction.”
While payments giants such as Mastercard and Stripe have increasingly leaned into the technology, touting it as a way to transfer money quickly and securely, the utility of stablecoins “remains more limited than headline activity implies,” Morgan Stanley wrote.
Citing McKinsey data, the firm noted that while total stablecoin volume reached roughly $35 trillion in 2025, actual real-world payments accounted for just $390 billion—an estimate analysts believe may still be overly optimistic.
Although payment volume more than doubled last year, adoption remains low and heavily concentrated in cross-border B2B, remittances, and card-linked spending, analysts contended.
Not everyone on Wall Street agrees. TD Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin initiated coverage on Circle stock with a Buy rating and $82 price target, citing “a compelling combination” of strong core growth, multiple ways to make money, and high-upside potential that the market might be underestimating.
Bergin believes Circle “is steadily evolving into a broader financial infrastructure platform” spanning payments, developer services, and cross-chain transfer technology that allows USDC to move seamlessly between blockchains.
His price target suggests shares could rise nearly 40% from current levels. Heading into Monday’s session, Circle stock had floundered in 2026, slumping 21% against the broader market’s 9.4% gain. Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has shed 28% of its value this year.
While Circle and other crypto-linked stocks often trade in tandem with Bitcoin, shares of the stablecoin issuer have been pulled even lower due to uncertainty around the passing of the Clarity Act, a proposed federal law setting a rulebook for the crypto industry.
Bergin remains optimistic. In his view, Circle is “an attractive vehicle for investors seeking exposure to the institutionalization of stablecoins and the modernization of global financial infrastructure.”
While Wall Street appeared to be focused on the downgrade, investors shouldn’t write off Bergin’s call entirely. TD Cowen is bringing a fresh perspective as the firm launches coverage on the stock, whereas Morgan Stanley is walking back a previous call.
Regardless, Circle finds itself at a crossroads. Until federal headwinds clear up and real-world adoption accelerates, the stock will likely remain a battleground for Wall Street’s contrasting views on the future of stablecoins.