Equities ended a volatile week of trading higher, as all three major indexes rose between 0.6% to 0.7%. Early in the week, the U.S. attacked Iran in response to the downing of an Apache helicopter, but by the end of the week both countries acknowledged that they were close to a deal to end the war.
If a formal agreement is announced this shortened-trading week, investors will be eager to parse the details–especially around the Strait of Hormuz and how quickly it can be fully reopened to maritime traffic.
The other big event of the week is the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary-policy meeting, culminating in newly appointed Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference on Wednesday. While the FOMC is expected to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged, Wall Street will want more clarity from Warsh on topics such as the Fed’s balance sheet, forward guidance on interest rates, and favored inflation measures.
Monday 6/15
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus estimate calls for a 15 reading, about five points less than in May. The May reading was the highest in more than four years, indicating growth in New York’s manufacturing sector.
The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for June. The consensus estimate is for a 36 reading, one point less than in May. Readings below 50 indicate that homebuilders are less confident about the near-term outlook for the single-family housing market.
Tuesday 6/16
La-Z-Boy and John Wiley & Sons report quarterly results.
The Census Bureau reports residential construction data for May. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million privately-owned housing starts, slightly less than in April.
Wednesday 6/17
CarMax and Jabil announce earnings.
The Census Bureau reports retail and food service sales for May. The consensus estimate predicts a 0.5% month-over-month increase, matching the April data. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales are expected to rise 0.3%, two-tenths of a percentage point less than in the prior month.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The Fed’s policymaking arm is widely expected to leave the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. The FOMC members will also release their Summary of Economic Projections. The last SEP from March showed a median projection of one quarter-point rate cut by the end of this year. Traders are currently pricing in one quarter-point rate hike by year-end. This will be the first FOMC meeting under Fed chairman Kevin Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell late last month. Powell has stayed on as a governor on the Federal Reserve’s board.
Thursday 6/18
Kroger reports first-quarter fiscal-2026 results.
Friday 6/19
Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day.