By Mackenzie Tatananni

The fleeting enthusiasm around Quantinuum's initial public offering suggests investors aren't quite buying the narrative of an imminent quantum revolution. Some industry leaders say the market is reading it wrong.

Look no further than IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, who took center stage at New York Tech Week on Tuesday. Although the presentation wasn't centered on quantum computing, the topic inevitably came up.

Big Blue arrived at the realization "many years ago" that quantum would generate sizable returns in the future, Krishna told attendees.

"Then the question became, can we do the hard science it takes to be able to make progress? I would say earlier this year we convinced ourselves of that," he said Tuesday.

The company's quantum research and development began before the turn of the 21st century. In 2001, IBM researchers were the first to demonstrate Shor's algorithm, spotlighting quantum's potential to crack the encryption protecting much of the world's data. That topic has recently returned to the forefront of public attention.

While quantum technology isn't broadly commercial yet, it is no longer just theoretical. IBM refuses to abandon the pursuit, and its research effort is steadily chugging along.

The paradigm shift Krishna referenced above was an experiment with Cleveland Clinic and Riken that used quantum-centric supercomputing to model a protein complex with more than 12,000 atoms. Researchers specifically modeled the proteins trypsin and T4-lysozyme in a liquid water solution, along with their binding agents.

The size of the complex overshadowed the 300-atom molecule researchers were able to model at the end of 2025. Given this rapid progress, Krishna believes researchers will make even more headway in the near future.

"We're pretty sure in a month or two we'll be at double that range," Krishna said. "If you can understand the properties of a protein using a few minutes of computation, you can now understand which molecule may bind to it to stop its bad behavior. You now open up a new pathway, possibly for health, that didn't even exist."

Investors are still trying to decide where they stand on the technology and what kind of premium they're willing to pay for its potential. Quantinuum made history this week as the first quantum computing pure-play to go public through the traditional initial public offering rather than a blank-check merger.

However, shares fizzled in their trading debut Thursday, paring back a 13% gain at the open to end the day up less than 1%. Shares fell another 9.8% on Friday, mirroring a broader market downturn and a slump in quantum stocks.

Krishna acknowledged that, despite the rapid progress, there's still a way to go.

"So now the task for the next two years is really an engineering task," he said. "Make these more scalable...and make them more fault-tolerant."

This positions IBM for major breakthroughs before the end of the decade. In 2029, the company anticipates the release of Starling, an error-corrected supercomputer, followed by an even more performant system in 2032.

Ahead of those milestones, the landscape has shifted slightly. IBM now has the backing of the Commerce Department, which agreed last month to put $1 billion -- out of a total $2 billion funding package -- toward IBM's forthcoming quantum chip foundry, Anderon.

Anderon will function independently of Big Blue, counting IBM as just one of its customers, head of research Jay Gambetta told Barron's after the announcement last month. Crucially, this initiative establishes IBM as a cornerstone in the industry, with other quantum players looking to use their infrastructure to manufacture their own hardware.

Krishna called the government investment "a sign that they did their homework and agreed it is now time to scale this as an industry." He characterized quantum as the next logical step after classical processors.

After CPUs and GPUs, "with quantum, you can do a third kind of math," Krishna said. He believes IBM's own commitment to invest $10 billion in quantum research, development, and manufacturing over the next five years is testament to quantum's potential to generate real returns.

The CEO conceded that he still gets questions about whether quantum is "a science fiction or lab thing, as opposed to be being real." However, there is growing proof that quantum computing can do more than just outpace classical processors; it can tackle complex problems that traditional chips couldn't solve in any feasible amount of time on their own.

"The pure capitalist in me says I wish everybody would just focus on AI, that'll leave us alone to go on in quantum, and we'll come and shock everybody three years from now," Krishna said, drawing laughter from the audience. "We have about 300 or institutions, clients, governments who work with us deeply on quantum, so actually I think that some fraction of people do get it, quite deeply."

Even if the market thinks it's risky, IBM's timeline isn't measured in daily trading sessions, but in years. Big Blue has survived a century of tech cycles by playing the long game, and if Krishna's timeline holds true, skeptics may be in for a wake-up call before the end of the decade.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 05, 2026 13:41 ET (17:41 GMT)

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