Chevron's (CVX) Q1 financial results set up a "meaningful" acceleration in sequential earnings, with momentum building through the rest of this year and into the first half of 2027, UBS analysts said in a Monday note.

UBS said Chevron's Q1 results were ahead of expectations despite facing significant headwinds from timing effects.

Analysts said that the conflict in the Middle East did not directly impact Chevron's assets, with projects shut as precautionary measures now back online.

UBS said that several potential drivers could drive Chevron's earnings higher in Q2 and Q3, including from its TCO Kazakhstan project, which is running above announced capacity, with volumes from Kazakhstan/Eurasia expected to increase 60% in Q2.

Analysts said that for long-term contract volumes, every $10 increase in Brent and Japan Crude Cocktail prices per barrel of oil will result in $600 million in pre-tax earnings and $450 million in after-tax earnings.

UBS retained a buy rating on the stock and increased its price target to $220 from $218.

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