This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron's.

IMF Foreacst: More Growth

Talking Points BMO Capital Markets April 17: This missive marks the seventh consecutive week of starting with commentary on the conflict in Iran, and it could possibly be the last. Markets are certainly trading that way, with equities putting the war in the rearview mirror by driving to new record highs, and oil pushing below $85 today to the lowest level since the opening days of the war.

While it is obviously premature to declare the Iran war over, we can now better assess the economic damage, particularly with oil prices simmering down notably. The IMF weighed in this week with its previously scheduled semi-annual World Economic Outlook. While the tone was downbeat, or at best cautious, what was remarkable was how little the Fund changed its global growth outlook from its January update. Based on the main mild scenario, growth is expected to cool only slightly this year to 3.1%, from 3.4% in both its initial projection and for actual growth in 2025.

The Fund noted that last year's growth rate ended up matching precisely the forecast at the start of 2025, as a variety of policy support measures offset the trade war impact -- clearly a lesson for assessing the impact of this year's war as well. We shaved our forecast for global growth a bit more than the IMF to 2.9% for this year, presumably based on a somewhat higher assumption for oil prices.

Douglas Porter

No Showers This April

Letter Stock Trader's Almanac April 17: The late March market low/bottom we were looking for based upon our S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern Chart is in.

We first alerted our members to this pattern on Thursday March 26, mere days before the S&P 500 closed at its low of the year on March 30 at 6343.72. As of the market's close on April 16, the S&P 500 was up 10.9% from the low and at new all-time closing highs with even more gains today now that the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened.

With the S&P 500 up 7.57% through the first half of April -- its second-best April start since 1950, further gains are likely. When April has started this strongly, the rest of the year has been higher in 20 of 24 years.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch

A Fine Advance-Decline Line

Chart In Focus McClellan Financial Publications April 16: On April 15, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index moved to all-time highs, and added to those records on April 16. The NYSE's Advance-Decline Line is still 1,018 net advances away from equaling its own all-time high.

Some might see it as a bearish divergence to have the S&P 500 make a new all-time high while the A-D Line has not yet confirmed. I do not see it that way, in part because the NYSE Composite Index is still 2.4% away from its own all-time high. So in that sense, the A-D Line is actually doing better than prices. It is just that the S&P 500 is doing even better than that.

It is further worth noting that the NYSE breadth data have been averaging 738 net advances in the two weeks since the March 30 price low. It is really hard to criticize that as being not strong enough. It is a very steep rise in the A-D Line, which conveys the statement that liquidity is plentiful.

Tom McClellan

Banks' Time to Boast

Letter Cresset April 16: Recent troubling private-credit headlines prompted market Cassandras to proclaim an incipient credit crisis. This week's positive earnings reports from our nation's largest banks suggest otherwise...

The most encouraging theme from this week's reports underscores the health of the consumer. Major banks reported that consumer and small-business spending continued to increase, with debit and credit card sales volume rising significantly year-over-year in the first quarter. Credit trends showed modest improvement across the sector, suggesting the American consumer remains on solid footing despite mounting economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, credit and card spending are tracking well, with fiscal stimulus, like tax refunds, expected to outweigh the impact of rising gas prices on household budgets.

Credit conditions appear generally benign across this week's earnings reports. Strong C&I [commercial & industrial] loan growth, record trading activity, positive operating leverage, and benign asset quality contributed to solid first-quarter results throughout the sector. Provisions for loan losses came in better than consensus estimates at several institutions, with net charge-off forecasts for the year remaining manageable.

Jack Ablin

Bonds Are a Buy

BTIG Technical Strategy BTIG April 14: Since the lows 10 days ago, the S&P 500 is up over 10%. WTI crude oil is down 22% from its highs on April 7. Yet bonds have only managed to rally modestly off recent lows and TLT [the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund] is still more than 4% below late February levels. We think this provides an opportunity to buy duration, and see 10-year yields falling back toward the 4% level with TLT working back towards $90 over the coming weeks.

At this point we see two ways that rates fall. Either we see continued de-escalation in the Middle East, crude moves lower, risk moves higher, and bonds should rally in that environment like they have just started to do. If there is prolonged escalation, the higher energy prices should eventually hit the economy which means growth slows and rates should fall.

Ten-year yields are just starting to roll over as daily momentum flips negative. We think 10-year yields can fall back toward 4% over coming weeks.

TLT is working through a small base but has upside toward $90 over coming weeks.

Looking purely at the seasonals, rates tend to have upward pressure through April, but then start to fall in mid-May.

Jonathan Krinsky

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April 17, 2026 18:39 ET (22:39 GMT)

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