Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK:293) Valuation Check After Strong Annual Revenue And Profit Figures

Simply Wall St.

Apr 16

AdvertisementCathay Pacific Airways stock triggered overview Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK:293) has recently drawn investor attention after posting annual revenue of HK$116,766.0 million and net income...

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This has put fresh focus on how its share performance lines up with these fundamentals.\nSee our latest analysis for Cathay Pacific Airways.\nThe share price has been under pressure in recent months, with a 30 day share price return of 5.52% and a year to date share price return of...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK1561":"航空股","BK1123":"航空公司","00293":"国泰航空"},"translate_title":"国泰航空(SEHK：293)在强劲的年收入和利润数据后进行估值检查","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00293":0.9},"content_text":"AdvertisementCathay Pacific Airways stock triggered overview Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK:293) has recently drawn investor attention after posting annual revenue of HK$116,766.0 million and net income of HK$10,828.0 million. This has put fresh focus on how its share performance lines up with these fundamentals. See our latest analysis for Cathay Pacific Airways. The share price has been under pressure in recent months, with a 30 day share price return of 5.52% and a year to date share price return of 6.41%. However, long term holders have seen a 1 year total shareholder return of 45.74% that builds on 3 and 5 year gains. If Cathay Pacific’s recent move has sharpened your interest in transport and infrastructure themes, it may be worth widening your search using our screener of 30 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks With Cathay Pacific trading at HK$11.82 against an analyst price target of HK$13.54 and an intrinsic value estimate at a large discount, the key question is whether this signals a buying opportunity or if the market already reflects future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 130% Undervalued The widely followed narrative pegs Cathay Pacific’s fair value at HK$11.98, only slightly above the last close at HK$11.82, and points investors toward the underlying drivers behind that number.  Taken together, this is why after its recent run, any future upside for the share price is purely down to valuation aspects, while margins and revenues stand to stagnate even in as best-case scenario. It is only when investors will be ready to award the carrier higher multiples in the near to mid-term that the share might be able to fly any higher; and for the reasons stated above, that is increasingly unlikely, reflected in my lowered projection of a future PE ratio of 8 (formerly 9). If, however, multiples should compress from here, the shares will go down no matter how well Cathay will manage to hold up its business in the eye of the hurricane.  Read the complete narrative. The narrative leans heavily on projected margins, earnings strength and a future profit multiple that would usually fit higher growth sectors. Curious which specific revenue path and profitability assumptions are doing the heavy lifting behind that HK$11.98 figure. Result: Fair Value of HK$11.98 (ABOUT RIGHT) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on projections that could be knocked off course by higher fuel costs or a sharper slowdown in Cathay’s cargo-exposed core markets. Find out about the key risks to this Cathay Pacific Airways narrative. Next Steps With mixed sentiment around Cathay Pacific’s outlook, it helps to see the full picture yourself and move quickly instead of relying on headlines alone. Start with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign Looking for more investment ideas? If Cathay Pacific has your attention, it is worth lining up a few strong alternatives so you are not relying on a single story to shape your returns.  Target steady compounding by focusing on companies with reliable payouts using our list of 481 dividend fortresses to spot income ideas you might otherwise miss. Hunt for quality at a reasonable price and let the screener of 233 high quality undervalued stocks help you quickly surface candidates with appealing fundamentals. Prioritize resilience first by scanning 303 resilient stocks with low risk scores so you are not caught off guard by hidden fragility in your portfolio.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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