By Ed Ballard

"Natural gas, delivered at a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time," says Billy Bob Thornton in a new commercial for liquefied-natural-gas exporter Venture Global.

Thornton, whose voice accompanies images of an export facility being built, is associated with the oil patch these days, thanks to his role in the TV series "Landman." But it's a jarring moment to hear LNG described as low-cost. Prices have jumped since the Iran war knocked Qatar, the second-biggest producer, out of the market.

U.S. LNG producers stand to gain market share. Shares in Venture Global have soared since the war started. It sells a greater share of its gas in the spot market than other exporters, giving it more exposure to rising prices (long-term contracts with traders and gas customers are the norm).

Venture Global, which sanctioned an expansion project in Louisiana this month, says its ability to bring extra supply online will help ensure stable prices.

But the current high prices are already boosting the appeal of alternatives, from renewables to coal.

" It's a scary thing, it's not good for our industry," said Michael Smith, chief executive of Freeport LNG, an exporter, at an energy conference in Houston this week.

LNG is natural gas chilled to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit, producing a liquid that can be shipped. Global export capacity had been expected to outpace demand in the coming years, with the U.S. adding the most.

No longer. Qatar suspended production even before Iran struck its giant Ras Laffan export facility, causing damage that will take years to repair and delaying its expansion plans. The lost supply is ripping through the global economy.

High prices will undermine LNG in key markets, such as developing Asian economies where power consumption is rising fast, said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy.

LNG has been pitched as a cleaner alternative to coal (although its carbon footprint is hotly contested). For now, Asian coal plants are running hot as governments carefully husband dwindling supplies of oil and gas.

The crisis boosts the appeal of low-carbon energy too. In South Korea, one of the biggest LNG importers, the government is pushing to reduce dependency on fossil-fuel imports with renewables. It has also floated accelerating the restart of six nuclear plants.

The last energy crisis shows one way this can play out. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe's rush for LNG burned emerging-market importers. In Pakistan, the result was a solar-power boom that the country's energy minister has credited with leaving the country better prepared for this crisis. With natural-gas demand declining, Pakistan canceled LNG orders from Italy's Eni late last year.

The LNG growth story won't just evaporate. In India, facing an acute cooking-oil shortage, the government wants to expand the natural-gas network, a buildout that could boost LNG demand.

But overall, Corbeau expects the crisis to push more countries toward a combination of coal and renewables.

One of the risks for investors listed in the prospectus for Venture Global's initial public offering last year was "increases in worldwide LNG production capacity." Another warning: "LNG may not be a competitive source of energy internationally."

War staves off the first of those threats, but brings the second into focus.

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Today's email was written by Ed Ballard in London. Contact him at ed.ballard@wsj.com. Contact the team at climate@wsj.com.

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March 26, 2026 09:31 ET (13:31 GMT)

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