By Patti Domm

It could be months before we know the total cost of the unprecedented disruption to global energy supplies from the Iran war. That was the message executives from oil majors imparted at CERAWeek, S&P Global's annual energy conference in Houston this week.

Several CEOs of the world's biggest oil-and-gas companies told the conference that forward oil futures are underpricing the potential impacts of the loss of supply. WTI crude hit $100 a barrel Friday for the first time since the war began. December futures were priced at $77 a barrel and in the mid $70s early next year, though futures prices have been rising.

"The physical market isn't being reflected in the price," said Carlos Pascual, a former energy envoy at the State Department, said. "There is this assumption that it is going to get fixed tomorrow."

There is currently a global oil supply shortfall of about 11 to 12 million barrels a day, according to Pascual

Dow CEO Jim Fitterling warned the conference that it could take as long as nine months to get ships moving, supply chains functioning, and production back on track after a cease-fire.

"What we heard in many discussions is that this is something that is much more profound, and it is going to take much longer periods," Pascual said.

Another consistent message from industry representatives was that they will focus on improving the security of their energy supply. That may include investing in their renewable energy sources.

"There is this new conceptualization of what energy security is about," Pascual said. "Renewables aren't being looked at in the context of energy transition. They are being looked at in the context of energy security."

Francisco Blanch, Bank of America's head of global commodities and derivatives, told Barron's that he expects to see a drive to increase renewable energy sources after the war.

"You are going to get more solar, wind, batteries, and nuclear," he said. "The renewable energy story is highly interconnected to the energy independence story."

That will make control of the supply chains for the components needed in clean energy production even more critical. China currently dominates the global supply of lithium and cobalt, both of which are needed in batteries. Blanch thinks there will be another "big push" to produce more batteries outside of China.

He currently has a target of an average price of $77.50 a barrel for Brent crude this year. He thinks the war may resolve soon, but he also said he can envision it spilling over into the second quarter of the year.

"If we are here a couple of weeks from now then we get quickly to our higher risk scenarios," he said. In that scenario, he sees Brent crude rising to as high as $160.

Brent crude ended Friday above $105 a barrel and WTI near $100 a barrel on anxieties around the war and the potential of escalation. The Pentagon is considering sending an addition 10,000 troops to the Middle East, according to a Wall Street Journal report Thursday. Oil prices could go higher if that happens.

"What happens to the oil price is going to be very event driven," Daniel Yergin, S&P Global Vice Chairman told Barron's. "For the Iranians, their strategy is very clear. They're waging war on the world economy. This is the battle they prepared for."

Write to editors@barrons.com.

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March 28, 2026 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT)

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