Morgan Stanley Revises ECB Call, Sees 2.80% 10-Year Bund Yield at Year-End -- Market Talk

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0651 GMT - The continuing Middle East conflict, limited visibility on a ramp-off and central banks' preliminary analysis of the stagflationary environment have prompted a revision to Morgan Stanley's central bank calls, rates strategists Luca Salford and Maria Chiara Russo say in a note. Morgan Stanley now expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 50 basis points in 2026, in June and September, but to unwind those hikes in 2027. Money markets currently price in three ECB rate increases this year, according to LSEG. The strategists also forecast the 10-year German Bund yield ending 2026 at 2.80% and 2027 at 2.70% under their baseline ECB rate-path scenario. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.038% on Friday, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 23, 2026 02:51 ET (06:51 GMT)

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(emese.bartha@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre style=\"white-space: pre\">\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  March 23, 2026 02:51 ET (06:51 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Revises ECB Call, Sees 2.80% 10-Year Bund Yield at Year-End -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Revises ECB Call, Sees 2.80% 10-Year Bund Yield at Year-End -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-23 14:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     0651 GMT - The continuing Middle East conflict, limited visibility on a ramp-off and central banks' preliminary analysis of the stagflationary environment have prompted a revision to Morgan Stanley's central bank calls, rates strategists Luca Salford and Maria Chiara Russo say in a note. Morgan Stanley now expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 50 basis points in 2026, in June and September, but to unwind those hikes in 2027. Money markets currently price in three ECB rate increases this year, according to LSEG. The strategists also forecast the 10-year German Bund yield ending 2026 at 2.80% and 2027 at 2.70% under their baseline ECB rate-path scenario. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.038% on Friday, according to LSEG. 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Morgan Stanley now expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 50 basis points in 2026, in June and September, but to unwind those hikes in 2027. Money markets currently price in three ECB rate increases this year, according to LSEG. The strategists also forecast the 10-year German Bund yield ending 2026 at 2.80% and 2027 at 2.70% under their baseline ECB rate-path scenario. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.038% on Friday, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com) \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  March 23, 2026 02:51 ET (06:51 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":true,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}