Is Nvidia’s artificial-intelligence star power fading? Even the hype of this week’s flagship GPU Technology Conference failed to ignite a rally; instead, the stock has breached a long-term technical floor.

For the first time in nearly a year, Nvidia’s stock price has fallen below its 200-day moving average. The metric is a key technical indicator of a stock’s long-term trend, calculated by averaging its closing price over the past 200 days. Generally, remaining above the 200-day moving average represents an uptrend, while falling below the line is a bearish signal.

On Friday, shares of Nvidia closed at $172.70, dipping below their 200-day moving average of $178.44. The long-term trend line will now likely serve as a level of overhead resistance for the stock.

It’s an unusual move for Nvidia, which has been the leader of the AI trade. Through Thursday, Nvidia’s stock had closed above the 200-day moving average for 214 straight trading days, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The DeepSeek scare and uncertainty about tariffs caused shares to slip below the line from January to May of last year — but prior to that, Nvidia had closed above the 200-day moving average for a record of 509 straight days.

Nvidia’s dominant role in the AI ecosystem was on full display at its annual GTC event this week, with CEO Jensen Huang offering a projection for at least $1 trillion in revenue just from its Blackwell and Rubin chip lineups through 2027. The company’s ecosystem of chips, systems, networking, software and data puts it in a good spot “to capture the lion’s share of AI infrastructure spending in the years to come,” William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji wrote in a note earlier this week.

But analysts had warned going into the event that Nvidia would have a difficult time reenergizing investors. Its shares have shed over 4% in the last six months, shrugging off factors like last month’s highly upbeat earnings report.

Naji attributes the price action to lingering investor concerns over the sustainability of AI spending by hyperscalers, especially as more Big Tech companies raise debt to fund their data-center investments.

Rising levels of capital expenditures have actually fueled other parts of the AI supply chain. Memory and optical stocks have been on a tear in 2026, as supply shortages have turned these components into expensive bottlenecks. Earlier this month, Nvidia entered purchase agreements and invested $2 billion each into optical-connectivity companies Lumentum Holdings and Coherent.

If history is any guide, Nvidia’s stock tends to bounce back after dropping below the 200-day moving average. After past instances in 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2021, shares of Nvidia have gone on to realize triple-digit gains within a year of the initial dip. Even the recent DeepSeek scare resulted in a nearly 60% gain by the one-year mark.

“As the leading provider of AI infrastructure, and with a strong likelihood that estimates continue to move higher, we see a favorable risk/reward for shares,” Naji wrote.