By Teresa Rivas

On the Peace Train? Stocks posted their best day in weeks after a tone shift from President Donald Trump about the war in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 631 points, or 1.4%, to start the week while the S&P 500 climbed 1.2% -- both had their best one-day performance since Feb. 6. The Nasdaq Composite ended 1.4% higher, its best day since March 9.

The premarket rally began at 6:23 ET this morning, when President Donald Trump posted on social media that the U.S. and Iran had made substantial progress toward a resolution, a shift from his Saturday threats to escalate the conflict if the Strait of Hormuz weren't reopened in 48 hours.

"A sudden pullback in crude following diplomatic signals underlines how sensitive markets are to any hint of de-escalation," said deVere Group CEO Nigel Green.

"President Trump's tweet turns the market on a dime. Again ... the market has demonstrated where it is headed when a final resolution is reached," writes Navellier Chairman Louis Navellier. "While this upside move is very welcome, the whipsaw of markets is certainly unsettling for investors."

Today's updates were a relief for war-weary markets, but investors will likely want more proof that peace is on the horizon. Absent that, the same old worries will return, exacerbated by the fact that the conflict is nearing the one-month mark.

That much is clear from the Cboe Volatility Index, which is still up some 30% since the start of the war. Oil had its biggest decline in about two weeks, but prices are unlikely to revert to prewar levels until there is more clarity about the Strait's status.

"We believe global economic risks are rising as basic materials and chemical inputs that support food production, electronics, manufacturing, and healthcare experience increasing supply chain disruptions due to the conflict in Iran," writes Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. Still, he remains optimistic: "As most investors know, stocks have a long history of weathering unexpected shocks and dislocations."

The Hot Stock: Albemarle +6.9% The Biggest Loser: Estee Lauder -7.7%

Best Sector: Consumer Discretionary +2.5% Worst Sector: Healthcare +0.03%

Don't Get Too Pumped

For many Americans, one of the most pressing questions is how quickly gas prices will come down if there really is an end to hostilities. Unfortunately, there's no simple answer.

Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, sees a range of possible outcomes near-term, none of which put it back where it was before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran:

Even with a possible decrease in tensions basis today's announcement from President Trump, we expect a price floor of $85 -- $90 [per barrel] and a natural drift back to the $110 range until the Strait of Hormuz is restored. In fact, if the SOH remains effectively shut until end of April, Brent could still reach $150/barrel and, just as importantly, products could settle in at prices that are 200% higher than prewar levels.

Still, as the elevated VIX reading showed, investors aren't quite convinced that Monday's breakthrough really is the beginning of the end. Although it isn't his base case yet, Dwivedi writes that one scenario is for a true cease-fire to take another month or so. "In this scenario, we reckon global refined product margins could approach $100 to $150 alongside $150 crude prices resulting in finished product prices that would be 200% to 300% above the prewar level."

The Calendar

GameStop and KB Home report earnings tomorrow.

ADP releases its National Employment report for the four weeks ending March 7. In February private employers added an average of 9,000 jobs per week according to ADP's NER Pulse.

S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March. The consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is a 51 reading, while the Services PMI is expected to come in at 51.5. This compares with readings of 51.6 and 51.7, respectively, in February.

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March 23, 2026 19:55 ET (23:55 GMT)

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