Fox's (FOXA) fiscal Q3 results are expected to reflect tough advertising comparisons with the lapping of last year's Super Bowl, while the company's distribution growth remains healthy, but moderating amid fewer renewals, UBS said in a research note emailed Thursday.

UBS said it expects fiscal Q3 total company ads to decline 30% annually, or a 2% contraction excluding Super Bowl, Tubi, and other items. Distribution is anticipated to rise 1.9%, compared with a 3.6% growth last quarter, according to UBS.

Additionally, an early National Football League broadcasting rights renewal, with a potential 50% to 60% raise in the annual average value, will imply a nearly$1 billion or 35% to 30% headwind to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, UBS said, adding that it sees this as its worst case scenario with part of the impact likely to be mitigated by higher retransmission fees.

UBS maintained its buy rating on Fox with a $78 price target.

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