Meta Platforms (META) shares are expected to remain subdued as speculation about a 20% workforce reduction and delays to the release of a new frontier large language model known as Avocado signal a company "on the defensive," Oppenheimer said Wednesday in a report.

Meta may face either higher AI spending amid intensifying competition or further delays to Avocado, with management likely to highlight "margin upside in hopes of placating investors," Oppenheimer said.

"The decision to lower headcount now seems surprising" after Meta provided its annual operating-expense outlook eight weeks ago, Oppenheimer said. A 20% headcount reduction would represent $4.2 billion of annualized cost savings, or a 5% boost to 2027 earnings per share, the report said.

The longer Meta takes to launch Avocado, the "harder it will be to catch competitors, as their own models keep improving," Oppenheimer said.

"Given the uncertain outlook, we expect shares will remain range bound unless AI begins driving significant engagement tailwinds," the report said.

Oppenheimer reiterated its perform rating on Meta stock.

Price: 608.89, Change: -6.79, Percent Change: -1.10