MW The world's largest natural-gas complex is now battered. Here's who will benefit.

By Claudia Assis

The U.S., the world's top LNG exporter, could step into the breach after 'extensive damage' at Qatar's Ras Laffan

QatarEnergy's operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City on March 2.

A fresh volley of Iranian missiles on Thursday caused "sizeable" fires and further damage to the world's largest liquified-natural gas plant in Qatar, which already had suffered "extensive damage" from a previous attack a day earlier.

The war in the Middle East is reshaping the world's energy supply chains, but perhaps nowhere else will the change be as dramatic as on LNG markets, due to the attacks on this major facility. The U.S., the world's top LNG exporter, could step into the breach, though it could take years to ramp up enough capacity to fill the void.

Qatar's Ras Laffan complex accounts for 5% of global natural-gas production and 20% of the world's LNG production. Natural-gas prices in Europe surged about 20% after the Iranian attacks on the facilities, and natural-gas prices in Asia had already doubled before the attacks.

The diminished Qatari capacity will likely boost U.S. LNG exporters, particularly those that can quickly react to changes in demand by selling their contracts to new buyers at higher prices.

The latest Iranian strikes against the Ras Laffan complex wiped out some 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost revenue and with repairs expected to take as much as five years, Reuters has reported, citing QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi. QatarEnergy said there were no reported casualties.

The fresh strikes fundamentally alter the global gas-market outlook, consultants at Wood Mackenzie said Thursday.

Before the most recent attacks, markets expected the war to cause a short disruption, with a controlled restart restoring supply to pre-conflict levels by the middle of this year. That now appears increasingly unlikely, said Kristy Kramer, Wood Mackenzie's head of LNG strategy and market development.

"A more prolonged outage would further tighten the global supply and keep prices elevated for longer," Kramer said in a note.

Before the latest strikes, Wood Mackenzie had forecasted four to six weeks to ramp up Qatari LNG production to full capacity. That timeline is now expected to be extended, depending on the extent of damage and required repairs, the consultancy said.

Qatar had halted LNG production and declared force majeure on its LNG exports a few days after the start of the conflict, which is nearing its third week with no resolution in sight and which has kept crude-oil prices close to $100 a barrel over multiple days. Hundreds of ships are trapped in the Persian Gulf due to the war, including LNG vessels.

Hard to replace

It's much harder to find alternative supplies of gas than alternatives to oil, because gas is harder to transport. And Europe's natural-gas storage levels were already below their five-year averages when the conflict started. Most LNG, once regasified, is used to produce electricity.

The U.S. supplies around 60% of Europe's LNG imports, while Qatari LNG exports historically supply Asian countries. With the Qatari problems, however, Europe may now be competing for U.S. imports with major Asian buyers such as South Korea and China.

Before the latest strikes, Taiwan had already said it planned to buy more U.S. LNG rather than Qatari, and Bangladesh was reportedly mulling to do the same. Australia is tied with Qatar as the second-largest LNG exporter, but its LNG has been historically more expensive and therefore a tougher sell to Asian countries, despite their proximity.

"You can't entirely replace Qatar over time, but it's an opportunity for the U.S.," said Robert Thummel, a portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. "The U.S. has the lowest-cost natural gas in the world."

Liquified natural gas, as its name implies, is natural gas that has been cooled to a liquid state for easier shipping and storage. The volume of natural gas in a liquid form is about 600 times smaller than its volume in a gaseous state in natural-gas pipelines, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The U.S. has exported LNG in large scale for a decade - the first LNG cargo ship leaving a Louisiana terminal sailed in February 2016; efforts in previous decades were stymied by the small volumes of LNG available for export. Becoming the No. 1 LNG exporter in the world in relative short order is thanks in large part to U.S. shale production that went into overdrive in the mid-2000s.

U.S. LNG contracts have more flexibility than some competitors'

U.S. LNG contracts are also particularly appealing to those who trade in the sector because they're very flexible in where they'll be delivered. Qatari contracts are usually more rigid, said Ira Joseph, a senior research associate at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy.

Because of that destination flexibility, buyers can react to changes in demand resulting from geopolitical events relatively quickly. "Technically, any buyer could redirect or resell their contracted volumes into other markets if the price is right. Portfolio players are certainly doing that," said J.P. Lacouture, a LNG and natural-gas analyst at Kpler.

A lot of U.S. LNG is owned by traders who operate on the spot markets, and "so far there's been quite a few Atlantic cargoes diverted to buyers in the Pacific Basin due to the Iran conflict," Lacouture said.

With rising natural-gas prices, U.S. LNG companies with portfolio volumes that are able to be sold on the short-term and spot markets, such as Venture Global $(VG)$ and Cheniere Energy (LNG), will likely see a boost in sales revenue, he said.

These U.S. LNG exporters would be the most obvious beneficiaries, particularly Venture Global, which has the most exposure to spot prices that react quickly to market changes. Cheniere has less of an advantage because it tends to contract most of its LNG shipments, thus selling them at fixed prices previously agreed upon.

Every U.S. LNG facility is operating at or above nameplate capacity at the moment, so there's less room for increased LNG production in response to the Iran conflict in the short term, Lacouture said. Depending on how long the conflict lasts, however, some facilities could elect to shorten or postpone their usual May and June maintenance schedules, he said.

Venture Global did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Cheniere declined to comment, saying only that it continues "to operate safely and reliably and deliver on our customer commitments."

Still some caveats to U.S. dominance

While some countries that import LNG won't have the choice but to to rely on U.S. LNG, other buyers "are clearly losing confidence in the [Trump administration] because of its erratic and unilateral behavior," said Jean-Christian Heintz, a managing director at Wideangle LNG Consulting.

There's also no guarantees that U.S. natural-gas prices will remain relatively cheap, he said.

U.S. LNG is directly indexed to the Henry Hub natural-gas futures benchmark (NG00), and has gained a relatively paltry 10% this month, compared with a 46% jump for the New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CL00) and a 52% increase for London-based Brent crude futures (BRN00).

"Indeed, if at a point a choice must be made between domestic use and lucrative exports, it will have impacts for U.S. taxpayers," Heintz said. "If I were a buyer, I would avoid putting all my eggs in the same basket, and buy from portfolio players" whose supply is not overly reliant on the U.S., he said.

Before to the conflict in Middle East, Wood Mackenzie expected the global LNG supply to grow by 35 million metric tons in 2026. With Qatar producing an average of 6.7 million metric tons a month in 2025, a disruption lasting five to six months would push annual global supply into year-on-year decline.

Countries vary on their ability to withstand the shocks and reduce their demand depending on the duration of the disruption. In Europe, having less LNG available is expected to speed up the switch from gas to coal.

Myra P. Saefong contributed.

-Claudia Assis

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March 19, 2026 15:26 ET (19:26 GMT)

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