Tesla’s autonomous-vehicle and robotaxi businesses are worth as much as $735 billion, which is more than double the value of the electric-vehicle division, according to an analyst with a bullish view on the stock.
“We view Tesla as the current leader in consumer autonomy, and expect it to quickly become a leader in robotaxi services,” BofA analyst Alexander Perry said in a Wednesday note to investors, as the bank resumed coverage of the U.S. automotive industry.
Perry has a buy rating on Tesla’s stock with a $460-per-share price target, implying 13% upside from current levels. The stock gained 3.4% on Wednesday.
More than 50% of Perry’s valuation for Tesla is based on its nascent robotaxi business, which is competing with Alphabet’s Waymo, Uber Technologies and others for dominance in the U.S.
Perry assigns the robotaxi division an equity value of $422 billion, which would be by far the company’s most valuable business, while its Full Self-Driving software is valued at $313 billion, in BofA’s analysis, for a combined total of $735 billion.
Tesla’s core electric-vehicle division is worth just $345 billion, per BofA.
Tesla has a ride-hailing service in two cities, but aims to expand to at least seven more in 2026. In January, it began offering limited trips in Austin, Texas, without a safety monitor present in some vehicles. In California’s San Francisco Bay Area, Tesla is only offering rides with employees present.
“We expect Tesla to quickly scale its robotaxi deployment,” Perry said, noting that the company’s camera-only tech stack is much cheaper and uses less power than that of rivals like Waymo.
BofA estimates Tesla’s cost per mile at scale will be $1.58, well below the $3.41 per mile it assigns to ride-sharing companies. Perry also projects Tesla to generate adjusted earnings of 56 cents per mile, above the 36 cents per mile he assigns to ride-sharing services.
“However, we believe there could be upside longer term as [Tesla] takes out costs,” he added.
Tesla’s robotaxis are reliant on the company’s progress with FSD, an advanced driver-assistance system. However, that is based on the assumption that it is able to attract more customers to buy a subscription for the technology, something that has been difficult for Tesla.
Tesla revealed in January that just 1.1 million customers had purchased FSD, a fraction of the roughly 8.9 million vehicles that the company has sold. But by 2030, Perry’s analysis assumes Tesla will have 8.7 million FSD customers. Musk wants the company to reach 10 million active subscribers by 2035, which would unlock part of his $1 trillion compensation package.
For Tesla to reach that target, it will likely need to offer FSD in more countries. The comapny currently can sell the software in just seven nations, including the U.S. Musk has been seeking approval by Chinese regulators for a full launch of FSD in that country, and has started on a path to full approval in Europe by the end of the 2026.
“Tesla has the most advanced real-world AI, and hopefully it will be approved soon in Europe,” Musk said last month. “We’re told by the authorities that March 20, it’ll be approved in the Netherlands.”
Perry said that Tesla’s fast-growing energy business could be worth $90 billion. Its mostly untested humanoid robots are worth $32 billion, according to BofA.
BofA also reinstated coverage of 15 other North American auto stocks, rating 11 companies at buy, including General Motors and Ford Motor. Perry said both companies are expected to benefit from a favorable regulatory environment.
Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group were assigned underperform ratings by BofA, which cited muted EV adoption.