A lingering effect on Gulf energy supply and shipping due to the Iran conflict may have differing credit impacts on Asia-Pacific commodity issuers, Fitch Ratings said in a recent release.

Increasing realized prices will benefit upstream producers, with a shift to immediate alternatives in Australia, Malaysia, and Indonesia to raise prices and cash flow for issuers including Santos (ASX:STO), Oil and Natural Gas Corp. (NSE:ONGC, BOM:500312), and Pertamina Hulu Energi, Fitch said.

Gas price increases could also anchor thermal coal demand in East Asia, especially if there is a shift to coal from gas, including in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Australian and Indonesian exports could benefit from a rise in liquefied natural gas prices if Qatar's Ras Laffan facility is closed, the rating agency said.

However, downstream, energy- and feedstock-intensive segments could bear the weight of cost inflation, impacting Indian Oil (NSE:IOC, BOM:530965), Bharat Petroleum (NSE:BPCL, BOM:500547), and Hindustan Petroleum (NSE:HINDPETRO, BOM:500104), Fitch said.

Greater risk could rise in locations with regulated fuel prices and possible production cuts under depleted inventories driven by crude supply bottlenecks, Fitch said.

Increased input prices could pressure chemicals, fertilizers, and some metals, while shipping delays could hit working capital.

Chinese metal producers such as Aluminum Corp. of China (SHA:601600) and China Hongqiao Group (HKG:1378) may benefit from constrained global supply and higher prices, while those in Japan and South Korea could face tighter margins, the rating agency said.

The impact of disruptions on steel producers is mostly adverse, while fertilizer manufacturers may observe mixed effects.