By Avi Salzman and Laura Sanicola

LNG exporter stocks, including Venture Global, NextDecade, and Cheniere, soared on Monday. The conflict in Iran has upended the market for LNG, or liquefied natural gas -- the commodity that keeps the lights on in much of Europe and Asia.

Qatar, which produces 20% of the world's LNG, stopped all production on Monday after two of its facilities were attacked, according to state-run QatarEnergy. Benchmark LNG prices in Europe -- a primary determinant of power prices -- jumped 49%.

Located south of Iran across the Persian Gulf, Qatar transports its LNG through the Strait of Hormuz from the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. That strait is effectively closed now, choking off a fifth of the world's LNG supply. It comes at a tenuous time for the market. European gas storage is sitting at its lowest level since 2022.

The U.S. is the world's largest exporter of LNG, which will make U.S. producers even more important players in the market, and their stock prices reflected that on Monday.

For example, Cheniere Energy rose 5.6%. Venture Global and NextDecade were also up, 22% and 6.2%, respectively. Asian and European LNG buyers will probably bid up prices as they compete for LNG cargoes. Prices were trading around $14 per million British Thermal Units on Monday. If LNG supplies are disrupted for several weeks, prices in Europe and Asia could reach as high as $18, according to analysts at Citi.

Venture Global should benefit more than the others because it has a greater ability to capitalize on the price spike. While most of its cargoes are sold through long-term contracts, the company sells some directly into the market at spot prices.

The producer has a lot of uncontracted cargoes to sell directly into the spot market because it's still in the commissioning phase for a new LNG facility, according to analysts at Mizuho. Venture Global isn't scheduled to begin official commercial operations until the fourth quarter of this year.

"Venture Global stands ready to help keep the market stabilized and supplied," said CEO Mike Sabel on Venture Global's fourth-quarter earnings call on Monday. "In the short term the higher prices are helpful for our spreads obviously," he added after a question from an analyst.

Venture Global owns or leases nine ships, which also insulates it from shipping prices, which have soared because the conflict has disrupted global commerce.

"We're uniquely able to move cargoes with our own vessels," Sabel said.

But Venture faces legal risks too, which have held down its stock price since it went public last year. It remains in arbitration with several customers over its sales of LNG on spot markets during the last major energy crisis in 2022. Some customers said the company sold LNG on spot markets that should have been sold to them under long-term contracts.

Cheniere, on the other hand, has a highly contracted portfolio with very little spot exposure.

The conflict could also prompt international LNG buyers to favor the U.S. over the Middle East as they secure the next wave of long term contracts.

This is critical for Cheniere, which needs to sign between 3 million and 5 million annual metric tons of additional sales and purchase agreements to unlock the final investment decision for stage 5 of its Corpus Christi expansion project, according to Jefferies.

Write to Avi Salzman at avi.salzman@barrons.com and Laura Sanicola at laura.sanicola@barrons.com

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March 02, 2026 11:18 ET (16:18 GMT)

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