Review & Preview: Stocks Are Flat as the World Shakes -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones
8 hours ago

By Teresa Rivas

Unfazed. Stocks were little changed on Monday despite the geopolitical earthquakes over the weekend, including the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after strikes from the U.S. and Israel. President Donald Trump said Monday that more Americans would likely die in the conflict after the first six fatalities. Still, markets were little fazed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.2% on Monday, while the S&P 500 inched 0.04% higher and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.4%.

"The U.S. equity selloff...reversed in short order, which makes sense," said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X. "Geopolitical events generally lead to brief periods of heightened volatility, but markets are usually quick to recover losses and tend to move higher in the subsequent weeks. The military operation does not really change the economic backdrop for U.S. companies."

Stocks may not have had a big move, but precious metals soared, with gold reaching $5,300. Oil surged as well on concerns about supply shortages. Brent crude saw the biggest move, spiking 13% at one point.

"There are two main reasons for the spike in energy prices," explains Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth. "First, production capabilities in the impacted countries may either be damaged through military strikes or shut down by choice and secondly, the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz causes significant disruption to energy exports out of the middle east as roughly 20% of the world's oil consumption passes through. In addition to the over 20 million barrels of oil that pass through daily, approximately 20% of global liquified natural gas also pass through the passage which unfortunately has few alternative routes."

Elsewhere, the rotation away from tech and other sectors seen as vulnerable to an artificial intelligence takeover was muted. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector exchange-traded fund continued to see some relief, as did the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF. Both are down around 7% in the past month.

"Relative macroeconomic resilience, exemplified by strong 'economic surprise' readings, has cushioned the impact of tech sector anxiety, limiting a potential full-blown correction to a violent sector rotation, " notes Lisa Shalett, CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

The Hot Stock: Northrop Grumman +6% The Biggest Loser: AES Corporation -17.8%

Best Sector: Energy +2% Worst Sector: Consumer Staples -1.4%

The Post-Buffett Era Begins

New Berkshire Hathaway Chief Executive Greg Abel has big shoes to fill after Warren Buffett gave up the corner office to become chairman of his firm. He seems to have gotten off on the wrong foot with investors.

Class B shares of Berkshire Hathaway lost 5% on Monday after the firm's fourth-quarter operating profit fell 30%. The report included Abel's inaugural shareholder letter, which drew praise from longtime Berkshire supporters, as my colleague Andrew Bary reported. Still, there hasn't been much overall movement, as "the company indicated no change in capital allocation. It didn't buy any stock in the fourth quarter or January 2026, continuing a trend that began in May 2024, and Abel signaled that no dividend is imminent."

Several analysts were unimpressed with the results, released on Saturday, Andrew notes. Somewhat confusingly Berkshire didn't call out the $1.6 billion goodwill write-down related to certain units in its earnings release Saturday. Overall, it seems understandable why the Street was looking for more, especially from a man who's signaled he hopes to have decades at Berkshire's helm:

Some investors thought that Abel might signal a greater willingness to return cash to investors, but that doesn't appear to be the case. One idea would have been a tender offer for, say, $50 billion of Berkshire stock.

No company is sitting on anything close to Berkshire's level of cash and the company has about $127 billion of it now at the parent company, where it can be more easily paid out to shareholders...

Abel issued no commentary on the report and didn't hold a conference call. That seems like a mistake given the complexity of the Berkshire results. Berkshire also didn't break down the fourth-quarter results for many units in keeping with a longstanding policy.

Abel plans to continue Buffett's policy of no quarterly earnings calls, writing they are inconsistent with a "long-term horizon."

Read the rest of Andrew's story here.

The Calendar

AeroVironment, AutoZone, Best Buy, CrowdStrike Holdings, On Holding, Ross Stores, Target, and Viking Holdings report earnings tomorrow.

What We're Reading Today

   -- PMI Rises in February, Marking Second Month of U.S. Manufacturing Growth 
 
   -- Brazil, Mexico Provide Safe Haven Amid Middle East Tumult: Charts 
 
   -- LNG is Soaring Even More Than Oil. Watch These Stocks. 
 
   -- Everything To Know About The F-15 Jet Shot Down By Kuwait 
 
   -- Bank, Brokerage Stocks Recover Lost Ground After Last Week's Selloff -- 
      Despite Iran Conflict 
 
   -- Worried About Citrini's Report? Just Watch Star Trek. 

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March 02, 2026 20:04 ET (01:04 GMT)

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