MW Why your fertilizer could cost more because of the Iran conflict

By Tomi Kilgore

CF Industries' stock soared, as profits could see a boost from higher nitrogen prices stemming from supply disruptions in the Middle East

Fertilizer stocks are rising, as the Iran conflict could disrupt a large amount of market supply and lead to higher prices.

Shares of fertilizer producers surged Monday, as investors bet that supply disruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East could lead to higher nitrogen prices - boosting profits in the process.

Prices were already set to rise before the Iran conflict started, as a large recent order from India for urea fertilizer had tightened supplies. But given that Iran, along with the Middle East in general, accounts for significant fertilizer exports, and that the Strait of Hormuz - a key shipping lane in the region - faces closures was enough to lead to speculation that prices could rise even further.

As RBC Capital analyst Andrew Wong explained, Iran accounted for about 10% of global urea exports, and the wider Middle East region accounted for about 25%. The Iran conflict poses "a potential risk to supply from the region," at a time that U.S. importers are "actively buying" ahead of the spring season.

Shares of CF Industries $(CF)$, which produces nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizer, were up 4.6% in late-morning trading. The bucked the weakness in the broader stock market, as the S&P 500 index SPX was down 0.4%.

CF's stock has now rallied 31.8% over the past three months, while the S&P 500 has edged up 0.3%.

Among others in the fertilizer business, Mosaic's stock $(MOS)$ was up 0.3% on Monday, but had been up as much as 4.2% earlier in the session, while CVR Partners shares $(UAN)$ climbed 3.8% and LSB Industries shares (LXU) gained 0.9%.

"With the weekend's U.S./Israel strikes on Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz impacted, supply from the region may be disrupted and could lift global nitrogen prices," Wong wrote in a note to clients.

He added that fertilizer remains in a seasonal uptrend, which should also support stocks of fertilizer producers and provide shelter from the recent weakness stemming from worries about how artificial intelligence will disrupt businesses.

Wong also pointed to a big recent order, in which India secured 1.3 million tons of urea fertilizer. He said he was surprised by the size of the order and prices paid, given that many suppliers had already sold forward into March.

He noted that the Middle East accounted for about 500,000 tons of fertilizer secured by India, but the conflict in the region could put that supply at risk.

-Tomi Kilgore

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March 02, 2026 12:03 ET (17:03 GMT)

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