By Mackenzie Tatananni
Venture Global, a major supplier of liquified natural gas, posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter. The stock jumped.
Venture Global logged earnings of 41 cents a share in the period, ahead of the 35 cents analysts had projected. Revenue nearly tripled to $4.45 billion, narrowly beating the $4.44 billion Wall Street had forecast.
The company, which operates facilities that convert natural gas into liquid for shipping purposes, exported 128 cargos and sold 478.3 trillion British thermal units of LNG in the latest quarter. This compares with 33 cargos and 127.6 trillion British thermal units in the prior year.
Shares spiked 29% to $11.63 in premarket trading. Futures tracking the benchmark S&P 500 fell 1%. The price of gas was sharply higher amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, with Brent crude briefly touching $80 a barrel.
Other numbers in the earnings report were softer than anticipated. The company said it expects $5.2 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for the fiscal year. Analysts were looking for $5.93 billion.
Venture Global sees adjusted Ebitda in the range of $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion for the current first quarter, below analysts' calls for $1.86 billion. The company cited the impact of winter storms and margin compression.
Despite the weak guidance, there was another reason why the stock was rising: a surge in LNG prices. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract was up nearly 46% to 46.60 euros on Monday.
Qatar, which ranks among the top three LNG exporters in the world, said it had halted LNG production following Iranian drone strikes on its facilities.
Roughly 20% of global LNG supply, particularly from Qatar and the UAE, passes through the Strait of Hormuz. In light of the recent conflict, traffic has effectively halted.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted that spot LNG prices had embedded little-to-no risk premium until Friday. Still, "we see significant upside risk to prices from a potential sustained disruption of LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz," analysts wrote.
In a scenario in which flow halts for one month, the firm could see TTF approaching 74 euros per megawatt hour, a critical level that triggered "large natural gas demand responses" during the 2022 European energy crisis. The firm sees "limited upside risk to U.S. natural gas prices."
Venture Global began trading on the New York Stock Exchange in January 2025, marking the biggest initial public offering for an energy company in more than a decade and the biggest ever by an LNG company.
However, the excitement quickly fizzled. Shares fell 4% in their first day of trading to close below the IPO price, and have cratered 60% through Friday's close. The stock has been plagued by concerns over Venture Global's legal exposure due to disputes with several of its customers.
In January, Venture Global won an arbitration case against Repsol, which had accused the supplier of breaching contracts to profit from a surge in energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
British energy majors BP and Shell raised similar allegations. The January ruling came after Venture Global lost a case against BP in October 2025.
Just months earlier, Venture Global won its case against Shell after a tribunal determined that Venture didn't breach its liquefied natural gas supply contracts. Shell responded by challenging the decision in New York state court.
Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com
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March 02, 2026 08:44 ET (13:44 GMT)
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