OPENING CALL

Investors were seemingly shrugging off Trump's marathon State of the Union address and focusing again on what has been driving recent volatility-AI.

Stock futures were a touch higher as investors geared up for earnings from Nvidia, which could help decide whether the AI boom still has legs.

Markets around the world rode the boost in sentiment, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closing at a record and South Korea's benchmark rising above 6000 for the first time.

It has gained more than 40% this year- putting it among the world's top-performing markets.

Closer to home, bankers now expect the few mega- offerings from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic to dominate the IPO market this year and that most private tech companies will be forced to keep waiting after the AI-induced fears rattled markets this week.

And while investors might eventually talk themselves down from some of their worst fears about AI disruption of software companies, don't expect private-asset managers to bounce right back.

Private markets giant Blue Owl hosted a call Monday to reassure wealth advisers who connect clients to its funds in response to retail investor panic.

Many advisers said they haven't lost faith in private credit and are counseling their clients to stay put-saying that fears surrounding Blue Owl aren't tied to evidence of losses or poor underwriting, but rather a misunderstanding

However, MFS Investment Management said investors should be cautious.

It said that public versus private was a hot topic in its IM's client meetings, but the real question should be how large should one's exposure to private credit be?

"Not too much is our short answer."

Stocks to Watch

Axon Enterprises rose after it said its efforts at providing AI-driven services to law enforcement clients led to bookings.

Cava sales rose on higher prices and better-than-expected performance at new restaurants. Shares gained 9%

HP lowered expectations for the fiscal year as memory chip costs weighed on margins. Shares fell roughly 5% premarket.

Lucid is laying off around 12% of its U.S. workforce. Shares dropped roughly 4.5%.

Workday said it expected slower growth for subscription revenue. The stock retreated 9%.

Netflix was up more than 1% before the bell. Paramount's revised Warner offer is its latest effort to derail rival bidder Netflix.

Watch For:

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Earnings from Bank of Montreal, Nvidia, Paramount , retailers Lowe's and TJX.

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-Skeptical Investors Are Hunting for Ways to Short the AI Frenzy

-Violent Militias Stand Between the U.S. and Venezuela's Vast Mineral Riches

-Key Takeaways From Trump's State of the Union Address

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies.

Risk-sensitive currencies could fall if Nvidia's earnings miss expectations, ING said, adding that disappointing earnings could have a larger impact on risky assets than above-forecast earnings.

"With some investor unease around AI stocks still lingering, Nvidia will probably need to beat consensus and offer strong guidance to provide meaningful reassurance."

Bonds:

Treasury yields were slightly higher , with the curve steepening modestly and little reaction to the State of the Union speech.

"President Trump declared a booming economy and a 'golden age' message at the same time as delivering several combative attacks on Democrats and the Supreme Court," Danske Bank said.

Energy:

Oil edged higher as markets remained highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, continuing to factor in a sizable risk premium ahead of U.S.-Iran talks.

"Oil prices weakened yesterday amid hopes that the U.S. and Iran will find a diplomatic solution to their standoff," ING said.

"However, the build-up of U.S. military assets in the Middle East means the risk of action remains very real."

In his State of the Union address, Trump said he would prefer a diplomatic resolution to the crisis with Iran, but made clear he would never allow Tehran to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Metals:

Gold

Gold rose back above $5,200 as uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to support safe-haven demand.

"Gold has stabilised above $5,000/oz, regaining more than half of the losses from its sharp correction earlier this month," MUFG said.

"However, expectations that U.S. interest rates may remain elevated for longer following stronger labour market data and cautious signals from Fed officials, could limit further upside for non-yielding gold."

Gold Chart

Comex gold futures' overall technical setup remained bullish, RHB said, based on the daily chart.

The commodity should resume upside movement toward the $5,500 level, following any consolidation.

Copper

Prices held above $13,000 a metric ton as Chinese buyers returned from the Lunar New Year holiday, boosting import demand.

The Yangshan premium rose to a two-month high, signaling stronger purchasing interest, according to ING.

However, inventories remained elevated on both the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the LME, indicating the global market was still well supplied.

"While stronger Chinese imports should help absorb some excess material, a sustained tightening in spreads will likely require clearer evidence of inventory draws, both in China and on the LME."

ANZ said sentiment was buoyed by prospects of lower U.S. tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling , adding that, even as U.S. levies on copper were still in effect, "The less punitive charges should be a boost for [China's] metal-intensive exports."

   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES 

HSBC Annual Profit Beats Consensus, Lifts Key Targets

HSBC Holdings' annual profit fell but topped market expectations as the lender pressed ahead with efforts to simplify its sprawling operations and strengthen its position in the U.K. and Hong Kong.

Europe's biggest bank by assets has been undergoing a broad organizational revamp under Chief Executive Georges Elhedery, who took over in the fall of 2024. Since then, he has set about cutting costs, streamlining its businesses and accelerating a pivot to Asia, where the lender makes most of its profit, pushing for HSBC become a more "simple, more agile, focused bank."

Diageo Cuts Guidance as New CEO Targets Portfolio Growth

Guinness maker Diageo cut its guidance for the fiscal year on weakness in the U.S., as new chief executive Dave Lewis looks to build a larger portfolio in a bid to revive the U.K. drinks giant's fortunes.

Home to brands like Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff Vodka, Diageo said it expects a 2% to 3% decline in organic net sales, citing weakness in its U.S. business and Chinese white spirits. Organic operating profit growth for the year is expected to be flat to low-single-digits, the company said.

SoftBank-Backed Wayve Raises $1.2 Billion From Microsoft, Nvidia, Automakers

U.K. self-driving technology provider Wayve raised $1.2 billion in a series D investment round, as it seeks to scale the commercial deployment of its driving tech.

The round, led by venture capital firms Eclipse Capital, Balderton Capital and a SoftBank Group fund, pushes Wayve's post-money valuation to $8.6 billion, the car startup said Wednesday.

Boston Beer Posts Lower Fourth-Quarter Revenue

Boston Beer reported lower revenue in the fourth quarter and said shifting tariff policies could significantly impact its guidance for the year.

The beverage company, which produces Samuel Adams beer and Truly Hard Seltzer, recorded a loss of $22.5 million, or $2.12 a share, compared with a loss of $38.8 million, or $3.38 a share, a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting a loss of $2.67 a share.

German Consumer Confidence Weakens as Geopolitical Uncertainty Reigns

Consumer sentiment in Germany edged lower as uncertainty weighed on confidence despite better recent news on the wider economy.

The consumer-climate index, published Wednesday by research groups GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions, declined to minus 24.7 in its forecast for March from minus 24.2 in February. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal last week had expected an upturn to minus 23.0.

Markets Eye Japan PM's BOJ Picks for Hints on Rate Path

TOKYO-Japan's government has nominated candidates for two positions at the central bank, a move that could be viewed as a chance to influence monetary policy in a more dovish direction.

Sanae Takaichi's administration has nominated two professors that, like the prime minister herself, are considered to be in favor of looser monetary policy, analysts say.

Germany Shows How Difficult It Is to Rewire Relations With China

BERLIN-Long dependent on the U.S. for its security and on China for its growth, Germany is trying to chart its own path. But a pair of high-stakes visits by its new leader to Beijing and Washington over the next week shows the process will be neither easy nor fast.

The trips highlight the dilemma facing many middle powers that are seeking to reduce their dependencies on rival great powers while not exposing their defenses or hurting their economies in the short term.

Bill Gates Apologizes to Foundation Staff Over Epstein Ties

Bill Gates apologized to staff of the Gates Foundation over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, admitting he made mistakes that had cast a cloud over the philanthropic group while insisting he didn't participate in Epstein's crimes.

In a town hall on Tuesday, the Microsoft co-founder acknowledged that he had two affairs with Russian women that Epstein later discovered, but that they didn't involve Epstein's victims. "I did nothing illicit. I saw nothing illicit," Gates said, according to a recording reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

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February 25, 2026 06:01 ET (11:01 GMT)

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