It takes years to build confidence but seconds to destroy it. The market appears to be living out that maxim when it comes to the impact of artificial intelligence on Corporate America.

Nervousness around AI seems to have reached fever pitch. Investors aren't waiting around to find out just how disruptive the new technology could be for certain sectors and companies -- they are getting out immediately and asking questions later. Unfortunately, there aren't clear answers.

International Business Machines is a case in point. The stock had its worst day since October 2000 on Monday after start-up Anthropic wrote a blog post on how AI can modernize COBOL -- the computer programming language used on IBM's mainframes.

Concerningly, the bar for a broader selloff is getting lower. A doomsday note by Citrini Research setting out a futuristic scenario along with Anthropic's updates were enough on Monday as the S&P 500 fell 1%. Two weeks ago it was a new AI tool from a company that once made karaoke machines that hit freight stocks.

Financial-services stocks were hit Monday as the Citrini report detailed how the economy could drastically transform, but JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon moved to allay fears and said America's largest bank will "be a winner."

The days ahead are fraught with potential catalysts. A slew of software earnings come at a perilous time for the industry and the broader tech sector. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF has slumped 27% this year. Workday, Salesforce, and Snowflake all report results in the next two days and will need to show signs they can be resilient in face of the AI threat.

Nvidia earnings are due Wednesday and the chip maker's role as a clear AI leader means it will provide a crucial update on the health of the tech ecosystem. But the market's current propensity to panic means it's exposed to any and every new development. Until investors can shake that mindset, AI fears will keep dominating market moves.

-- Callum Keown

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Fed Gov. Waller Calls March Rate Decision a Coin Flip

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller, one of the central bank's dovish voting members, has signaled a slight shift on the next interest-rate decision from his position in January, when he urged policymakers to agree on a quarter-point cut. Now, he sees the next decision as more of a coin flip.

   -- Waller now says that it would take a clear deterioration in the job 
      market to justify a cut, in a fairly significant change for someone who 
      has dissented several times in favor of easier policy and was considered 
      one of President Donald Trump's top picks for Fed chair. 
 
   -- At an appearance Monday, Waller pointed to the 130,000 jobs added in 
      January as "welcome good news," even though job growth was concentrated 
      in healthcare and construction jobs and early-year figures could be 
      revised down. His earlier view was that weakening job growth and 
      underlying inflation justified another cut. 
 
   -- Waller said the recent increase in productivity was unlikely because of 
      artificial intelligence, countering the argument often made by Trump's 
      Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. Waller said the neutral rate is driven 
      more by the supply and demand for government bonds than by a near-term 
      productivity burst. 
 
   -- If February jobs numbers confirm that the labor market is steady and if 
      inflation continues drifting toward the Fed's 2% target, Waller said 
      holding rates steady would be appropriate. He noted there remains 
      "considerable uncertainty" over the extent to which Trump's tariffs would 
      continue. 

What's Next: If data disintegrates, however, Waller said he would vote to cut, calling the choice "close to a coin flip." The CME Fedwatch tool puts a 95.5% probability on Fed policymakers keeping rates steady in March.

-- Nicole Goodkind and Janet H. Cho

A Viral Online Post Slams Stocks and Proves AI Fear Is Real

A Substack post imagining an economy ravaged by artificial intelligence disruption caused a stir on social media on Monday and dragged the indexes down with it. It all highlights the depth of investors' concerns about the technology. The Dow shed more than 800 points and the Nasdaq fell more than 1%.

   -- Independent publisher Citrini Research posted an article imagining a 2028 
      in which AI advancements have triggered mass white-collar layoffs, 
      upended asset managers, and shrunk the tax base. In that downside 
      scenario, AI isn't a bust -- it actually exceeds expectations -- but the 
      S&P 500 falls 38% anyway. 
 
   -- Let's just say the reaction online was mixed. Many market watchers and 
      tech industry executives dismissed the article as unrealistic and 
      cynical. But every stock Citrini mentioned by name was down in afternoon 
      trading Monday, including DoorDash and American Express. 
 
   -- DoorDash got the brunt of the damage. In Citrini's thought experiment, 
      competitors could use coding agents to easily launch delivery apps, and 
      drivers could use multi-app dashboards to find the best gigs. Consumers 
      using AI agents, meanwhile, would check all available apps to find the 
      best deal, eliminating any kind of brand loyalty. 
 
   -- DoorDash's co-founder and former chief technology officer, Andy Fang, 
      weighed in. "We definitely believe agentic commerce will be 
      transformative to the industry," Fang wrote in a post on social media. 
      "No question we're gonna need to adapt to it. The onus will be on us." 

What's Next: Peter Williams from 22V Research said this "Citrini selloff" dramatically catalyzed existing and building AI-related fears about the displacement of existing businesses and labor. But Citrini's scenario is just one of a number of plausible ones, though in the current mood, the market latched on.

-- Nate Wolf

Tariff Refunds Are In Play. It Could Take a While.

Now that the Supreme Court has ruled that President Donald Trump's tariffs invoked under emergency powers are illegal, the biggest question is whether -- and how -- an estimated $175 billion in collected tariffs will be refunded to those who paid them. The justices didn't say how refunds would be issued.

   -- Beacon Policy Advisors said companies might have to proactively claim 
      refunds rather than wait for Customs and Border Protection to 
      automatically issue them, saying the question is not whether importers of 
      record are entitled to tariff refunds, but how much they are entitled 
      to. 
 
   -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday didn't directly answer whether 
      the U.S. government would refund the billions in tariffs paid, saying the 
      Supreme Court didn't address it. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer 
      said administration officials "need the court to tell us what to do." 
 
   -- Democratic Sens. Ron Wyden, Ed Markey, and Jeanne Shaheen plan to 
      introduce a bill requiring Customs and Border Protection to pay refunds 
      with interest. Their bill, if enacted, would require the refunds be 
      processed in 180 days and start with repaying small businesses. 
 
   -- Ropes & Gray LLP law firm noted that because CBP is an agency within 
      Homeland Security and currently unfunded during the partial government 
      shutdown, it's unclear how quickly CBP can announce and execute a refund 
      process. It expects a complex and "potentially contentious" reimbursement 
      process. 

What's Next: More than 1,000 businesses had sought tariff refunds before the Supreme Court decision, and that number is expected to grow. FedEx filed a lawsuit Monday seeking a full refund and interest for the tariffs it paid in the past year that were subject to the emergency powers Trump used to impose them.

-- Janet H. Cho

Trump to Deliver State of the Union After Tariff Setback

President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday at 9 p.m. Eastern time. It comes just days after one of the most significant setbacks of his presidency. On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled against Trump's signature trade policy, saying it broke the law by using an emergency powers act to impose tariffs.

   -- The address will be watched keenly to see if he uses it to signal an even 
      harder push for a global trade reset rather than step back. The stakes 
      are high as public discourse and that in his own Republican party is 
      questioning the high tariffs that are a centerpiece of Trump's economic 
      agenda. 
 
   -- State of the Union addresses are traditionally a time when the president 
      pitches new legislative goals to Congress and the public. Those 
      suggestions have often run aground almost as soon as they were proposed 
      -- and this time, Trump might not even make the attempt, according to 
      some policy analysts. 
 
   -- Turning Trump's approval rating around will be critical for Republicans 
      to have any shot of keeping unified control of the Senate and House of 
      Representatives after the November midterm elections. 

What's Next: Analysts expect Tuesday's State of the Union to include many of the same themes touched on recently such as policies that Trump says have helped with affordability. Other themes might include his nationwide immigration crackdown and the buildup of U.S. military forces in the Middle East amid growing tensions with Iran.

-- Joe Light

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February 24, 2026 06:52 ET (11:52 GMT)

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