Assessing Brinker International's Valuation After Strong Quarter And Raised Guidance Attract Analyst Upgrades

Simply Wall St.

Feb 18

Brinker International (EAT) is back in focus after a strong quarter, raised full year guidance, and a run of upbeat earnings estimate revisions that have drawn fresh attention from Wall Street and ...

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See our latest analysis for Brinker International. Despite a softer 1-day share price return of 0.9% and a 7-day share price return of 1.29%, Brinker International’s 30-day share price return of 2.15% and 90-day share price return of 25.9% sit alongside a 3-year total shareholder return of more than 3x. This points to momentum that remains firmly intact after its recent earnings beat and guidance raise. If Brinker’s run has you thinking about what else is moving, it could be a good time to broaden your search with our list of 23 top founder-led companies. With shares up sharply over 90 days, earnings estimates moving higher, and the stock trading at a discount to both analyst targets and certain intrinsic value estimates, is there still an entry point here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 16% Undervalued Brinker International’s most followed valuation narrative places fair value at $191.05 per share, compared with the last close of $161.07, framing the current debate around upside potential. Brinker's investments in menu innovation (e.g., upgraded ribs, new chicken sandwiches, beverage innovation) and a sharper focus on core items with broader appeal to younger demographics position it to capture incremental traffic from shifting population and generational consumption patterns, supporting future revenue growth. Accelerated rollout of its digital initiatives, including a streamlined handheld server app, enhanced marketing via My Chili's Rewards, and expanded high-speed WiFi, positions the company to take advantage of increasing digital ordering and off-premise dining trends, which should support higher average check and drive future revenue and margin expansion. Read the complete narrative. Curious what earnings path and margin profile sit behind that fair value, and how a specific future P/E and discount rate tie it together, the full narrative lays out every step. Result: Fair Value of $191.05 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, higher labor and commodity costs, along with ongoing pressure on dine in traffic, could still challenge margins and same store sales, testing that upside story. Find out about the key risks to this Brinker International narrative. Next Steps If this all sounds optimistic but a bit one sided, take a moment to review the full picture for yourself and decide quickly how you feel about the balance of 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs. Ready to find your next idea? If this news has sharpened your focus, do not stop at one company, use the Simply Wall St Screener to spot fresh ideas that fit your style.  Target steady compounding potential by filtering for companies in our 81 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on resilience and downside protection. Seek out mispriced opportunities by reviewing our screener containing 24 high quality undiscovered gems backed by strong fundamentals but still flying under most investors’ radar. Prioritise financial strength by scanning the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (44 results) so you do not miss businesses with cleaner balance sheets and robust financial footing.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Brinker International might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}