The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2144 ET - JGBs rise in price terms during the Tokyo session amid reduced prospects of an early rate increase by the Bank of Japan. Monday's meeting between BOJ Gov. Ueda and Prime Minister Takaichi occurred just under three months since their last meeting, two members of SMBC Nikko Securities' Financial Market & Economic Research say in commentary. The gap between the meetings is shorter than the average four-and-a-half month interval between the BOJ governor and Prime Minister meetings in the past. Hence, "this timing provides fodder for speculation that Takaichi is trying to talk Ueda out of early rate hikes," the members say. Yield on the two-year JGBs is down 1.5bps at 1.250%, and the 10-year yield falls 4.5bps to 2.165%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2117 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the U.S. dollar as Lunar New Year holidays in most of the region dim trading. Minutes of FOMC's January meeting and U.S. advance estimate 4Q GDP, which are due out this week, are unlikely to materially change market pricing for Fed rate cuts, says CBA's Kristina Clifton in a research report. The market is currently pricing a high probability of a Fed rate cut in June, which also mirror's CBA's view, the senior economist and senior currency strategist says. USD/KRW is little changed at 1,444.01 and AUD/USD edges 0.2% lower to 0.7060, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2101 ET - The Reserve Bank of Australia has sent signals that the policy path ahead might be gentler than some have feared. ANZ's head of Australian economics, Adam Boyton, notes that minutes of the RBA's recent policy meeting highlight that future rate increases aren't a foregone conclusion. The RBA is likely to end up pleasantly surprised on the inflation front, and a slowdown in consumer spending is also expected in the coming months, he adds. ANZ expects the official cash rate to remain at 3.85% over 2026. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

2057 ET - The yen rebounds modestly after weaker-than-expected Japan's gross domestic product data triggered selling on Monday. The yen has strengthened sharply since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi scored a landslide election victory earlier this month. The yen's further advance may rest on the progress in Takaichi's economic and fiscal programs. She plans to step up defense and industrial spending to drive long-term economic growth while pledging to lower the ratio of government debt relative to the country's GDP. USD/JPY is at 153.28, compared with 153.49 as of Monday 5 p.m. Eastern Time. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

2015 ET - Japanese government bond yields are lower as expectations for the Bank of Japan's near-term rate increase recede. Weaker-than-expected gross domestic product data, released Monday, lowered prospects for the BOJ's additional rate increases. Investors are focusing on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's policy steps, especially those aimed at lowering the cost of living, such as a temporary cut to the consumption tax on food. The five-year Japanese government bond yield is down 2 basis points at 1.650%. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

1848 ET - Japanese stocks may decline as initial enthusiasm over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election victory eases. Nikkei futures are down 0.2% at 56830 on the SGX. USD/JPY is at 153.64, compared with 153.14 as of Monday's Tokyo stock market close. As the domestic earnings season comes to an end, investors are focusing on details of Takaichi's policy steps to bolster the economy and their market implications. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.2% to 56806.41 on Monday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

1735 ET - The Reserve Bank of Australia will sift key wages growth and employment data over coming days to again assess its current contention that the job market is a little too tight. The RBA already feels as though the unemployment rate is below levels consistent with stable inflation, and if the data on employment growth and wages continue to support that view, then bets on a further rise in interest rate in May will firm further. RBA rhetoric over the last week has been full of warnings that inflation is too high, so it won't take much of a red flag in the data to see market bets firm. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1053 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, fall by more than their eurozone counterparts due to a reduced U.K. political risk premium, XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. Threats of a leadership challenge to U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer have faded, calming investors' concerns about a potential change that could lead to a more expansive fiscal policy. Ten-year gilt yields fall a one-month low of 4.383% while eurozone bond yields are little changed, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1038 ET - Credit spreads on euro-denominated corporate bonds are likely to stay tight as companies report healthy financial positions in their fourth-quarter earnings, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Strong demand for credit assets is also likely to keep spreads at tight levels, he says. "For credit to go wider, we believe that absent a new shock to the system, one of the two factors (strong corporate fundamentals or strong appetite for credit) has to change." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1033 ET - Credit markets stayed relatively steady in the past week even as stock-market volatility increased, analysts at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management say in a note. Demand for corporate bonds was strong, enabling tech companies Alphabet and Oracle to raise $45 billion together on bond markets, the analysts say. "These dizzy figures showcase the strength and depth of public credit markets," they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1017 ET - Bitcoin would need to break above $70,000 with high volumes to resume an upward trend, ActivTrades analyst Saverio Berlinzani says in a note. The $70,000 level has become a key resistance level, he says. Many analysts see the recent falls in bitcoin as a final correction rather than the start of a structural decline, he says. "The general outlook as of mid-February 2026 is neutral or cautiously optimistic in the medium term." Short-term chart support for bitcoin lies between $65,000 to $66,000. However, if this support fails to hold, a drop towards $60,000 or even below could prompt bigger and more sustained falls, he says. Bitcoin rises falls 0.4% to $68,550, having reached a 16-month low of $60,008 on Feb. 6, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0943 ET - Eurozone banks face funding and liquidity risks due to their links to non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFI), ING's Marine Leleux says in a note, citing a report by the European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board. "On aggregate, euro area banks are net debtors to the NBFI sector which exposes them to both funding and liquidity vulnerabilities," Leleux says. Euro area banks rely on non-bank intermediaries for deposits and buying bank bonds, she says. "The data shows the predominance of short-term and concentrated funding, exposing banks to roll-over and redemption risks if these funding channels were to dry up." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 16, 2026 21:44 ET (02:44 GMT)

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