By Adam Clark

Oil prices were edging down early on Friday but remain near their highest levels in six months. President Donald Trump could send crude rising with a strike on Iran in the near future, but analysts generally expect the oil market to remain calm overall.

Oil prices are currently on track for weekly gains of more than 5% because of expectations that the U.S. could attack Iran if the two sides fail to reach an agreement over Tehran's nuclear program.

Brent crude, the international standard, was down 0.3% at $71.45 a barrel on Friday. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.3% to $66.18 a barrel. Trump said Thursday he would decide his next moves on Iran within 10 days, and The Wall Street Journal reported he is considering a limited military strike.

Prices have moved decisively higher than the lows of less than $60-a-barrel which were touched in December. But commentators generally still see an oil market dominated by plentiful supply.

"While we are unsure whether the current bounce will top out in the high $70s or high $80s, we have more confidence in the view that the risk premium will wane and oil prices return back below $60 toward midyear," wrote Norbert Rücker, head of economics at Julius Baer, in a research note Friday.

Even in the case of military action, Iran's relative weakness and the importance the Trump administration is placing on keeping costs under control for consumers should mean the conflict remains contained, therefore limiting supply disruption, according to Rücker.

Gavekal Research analyst Tom Holland pointed to additional sources of supply as a reason to believe oil prices won't rise dramatically.

"In the event of an oil price spike driven by a new Middle Eastern conflict, the U.S. will likely release oil from its strategic reserve. And -- perversely -- cargoes of Iranian oil held offshore in Asian waters will find eager buyers," Holland wrote in a research note. "These buffers should help to mitigate the rise in prices -- at least if the conflict is relatively short lived, lasting no more than a month or so."

However, if it becomes clear the U.S. strategic objective is regime change in Iran and that it is ready for a protracted campaign, oil prices could approach $100 a barrel, according to Holland.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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February 20, 2026 09:08 ET (14:08 GMT)

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