By James T. Areddy

VAUXHALL, Alberta -- In much of Canada, President Trump's provocations like making the country a 51st state are deeply unpopular. In this conservative, oil-rich province, Trump presents an opportunity.

Alberta is poised to hold a referendum on seceding from Canada later this year, and supporters of independence credit Trump's disruptive energy for adding fuel to their movement. Alberta secessionists view Trump as a powerful ally in their quest to rattle Canada's liberal politics and supercharge oil production -- and no obstacle to their independence, even if statehood is unlikely.

Albertan independence is a remote but chilling prospect for Canada. The western province is a resources powerhouse that holds most of Canada's crude oil. Only Saudi Arabia and Venezuela have bigger reserves of crude.

Trump administration officials have repeatedly welcomed Alberta's independence leaders to visit Washington for discussions on energy and trade. Allies of Trump, including Steve Bannon, have fanned Alberta independence talk, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently affirmed the movement by saying, "People want sovereignty."

Even before Trump's inauguration last year, the president had shown interest in Alberta. Over two days in Florida last January, the then-president-elect discussed energy cooperation with Alberta's conservative leader, Premier Danielle Smith, who later opened the door to a referendum.

Mitch Sylvestre, who launched the referendum effort, explained his takeaway after meeting U.S. State Department officials: "I believe that they would welcome a free and independent Alberta."

Rather than making Alberta a state, he said talks are aimed at ensuring a declaration of independence wouldn't interrupt its sizable trade with the U.S. "We're trying to make sure there's an open dialogue," Sylvestre said.

Trump himself hasn't commented on Alberta secession. In response to questions from The Wall Street Journal, a White House official said that "administration officials meet with a number of civil-society groups. No support or commitments were conveyed."

Alberta, known as the Texas of Canada, is roughly the same size as the Lone Star State, borders Montana and features rich prairieland along with Rocky Mountain skiing at Banff. It stretches northward into desolate permafrost regions flush with "oil sands" that produce about nine times as much crude as Alaska.

After more than a decade of liberal Canadian prime ministers, politically conservative Alberta is fed up with its minority status in Ottawa and sending money east to population centers like Toronto and Montreal that are more ideologically tuned to the U.S.'s bluest cities. Secessionists tap Albertans' deep sense of taxation without representation.

Polls in Alberta weren't even closed when Prime Minister Mark Carney's liberals were declared victors in last April's election, reinforcing a sense of political powerlessness in the province. The next day, Smith, the Alberta premier, charged the federal government with taking "hostile actions against Alberta" in the form of regulations on oil production and set in motion a rule change to halve the number of signatures needed to force a referendum.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta but hasn't publicly engaged on the secessionist movement, later gave ground, softening some regulations Smith opposed, which she welcomed. Still, the premier's position on independence remains inscrutable: "I believe in Alberta sovereignty within a united Canada."

Vauxhall, 150 miles southeast of Calgary, calls itself the "Potato Capital of the West," but its spud fields whiff of petroleum because they also sprout oil derricks.

On a recent Wednesday evening, 60ish farmers wearing trucker hats joined colleagues in their 20s sporting piercings in Vauxhall's community center to sign Sylvestre's petition for a referendum. His town hall was a big enough deal, they said, to miss the final game in a "Battle of Alberta" series between the province's National Hockey League rivals, the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers. (The Flames won, 4-3, to clinch the series.)

"Can anyone remember a time when the government passed a law that made you richer?" Sylvestre asked, while running through a lengthy list of grievances with Ottawa over taxes, energy, elections, immigration and gun control that, in his telling, would evaporate with independence. "Canada is run by Alberta money," he said.

A small-town resident, Sylvestre, 70 years old, got active in right-wing politics after authorities forced a lockdown of his sporting-goods store during the Covid-19 pandemic. Now Sylvestre leads a pro-independence group called Stay Free Alberta, and he has until May 2 to get 177,732 signatures supporting a referendum, equal to 10% of Alberta's eligible voters.

It's a lowball target likely to be hit that would force a vote on the question, "Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?"

The movement is popular outside Alberta's biggest cities, such as in central Innisfield, where store owner Casey Sorensen was advertising his pro-independence position on a recent day by wearing a T-shirt of the provincial flag.

The 61-year-old criticized federal tax, immigration and social policies in saying, "I'm a proud Albertan, but I'm a pissed off Canadian." He cheers Trump's talk about subsuming Canada -- and Greenland. "I love that," he said.

Winning a referendum -- possibly in October -- is a taller order than getting it on the ballot; polls suggest support in Alberta for independence sags toward 30% and wagering on Polymarket puts the odds of a yes vote at just 13%. Opposition to independence -- and Trump -- is strongest in urban Alberta.

For Canada loyalists, polls are cold comfort in the age of social-media disinformation, untraceable political money and shocks like Britain's exit from the European Union, not to mention the Trump factor.

"Referendums are very unpredictable," worries Thomas A. Lukaszuk, an Alberta politician who spearheads a counter campaign called Forever Canadian.

Breakaway sentiment in Alberta is an echo of two independence referendums pursued decades ago in the French-speaking province of Quebec, most recently in 1995 when separatists failed by a little more than a percentage point.

Despite Alberta's legitimate beefs with Ottawa over federal spending and policies that hold back its oil production, secession would be a net negative, said the province's former Premier Jason Kenney. "The truth is, if Alberta becomes an independent state, it has to assume all kinds of costs," he said, from recreating the federal bureaucracy to negotiating commodity-export deals, including with the rest of Canada.

A vote favoring Albertan independence would trigger a complex, and untested, series of constitutional procedures before taking effect. "It doesn't mean separation happens," said David Percy, a law professor at the University of Alberta, citing hurdles including ratification by the House of Commons and seven of 10 provinces.

Nearly all land in Alberta is governed by treaties with First Nations peoples and their tribal leaders call the independence drive political fantasy. It is "one of the most significant assaults on our treaties and way of life" in generations, said Chief Sheldon Sunshine of Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation, who donned a war bonnet of eagle feathers last month to join chiefs representing all 48 First Nations in Alberta to denounce the separatists.

The chief also urged Washington to back off: "We're taking this very seriously," he said. "We've seen what happened in Venezuela, we're hearing the rhetoric that's happening in Greenland."

In the 1990s, Canadian economist Patrick Grady deflated support for independence with calculations showing that by leaving, "Quebec would be much harder hit than the rest of Canada." Today, Grady says it's the other way around, with Canada's economy dependent on Alberta.

Kenney, the former premier, predicts Trump will eventually nod in favor of separation -- and unwittingly ignite patriotism.

"If that happens, it's good for the cause of Canada," Kenney said.

Write to James T. Areddy at James.Areddy@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 14, 2026 12:00 ET (17:00 GMT)

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