Assessing American Airlines Group (AAL) Valuation As Union Protest And No Confidence Vote Target Leadership

Simply Wall St.

Feb 15

American Airlines Group (AAL) is back in focus after its flight attendant union staged a protest and issued a no confidence vote in CEO Robert Isom, highlighting management tensions and existing ...

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The 90 day share price return of 8.78% contrasts with a 1...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4500":"航空公司","AAL":"美国航空","BK4588":"碎股","AAL.AU":"Alfabs Australia Ltd","BK7077":"建筑机械与重型卡车","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK4008":"航空公司"},"translate_title":"评估美国航空集团（AAL）估值作为工会抗议和不信任投票目标领导层","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"AAL.AU":1.5,"AAL":1.5},"content_text":"American Airlines Group (AAL) is back in focus after its flight attendant union staged a protest and issued a no confidence vote in CEO Robert Isom, highlighting management tensions and existing financial pressures. See our latest analysis for American Airlines Group. At a share price of $13.88, American Airlines Group has seen short term momentum fade, with a 7 day share price return of 8.92% and a 30 day share price return of 8.32%. The 90 day share price return of 8.78% contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return of 13.09%, suggesting recent news and operational concerns are weighing more on long term sentiment than on the very latest trading. If this turbulence around American Airlines has you reassessing the sector, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out 23 top founder-led companies as potential alternatives. With American Airlines trading at $13.88, sitting at a discount to analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates but carrying weak multi year returns and union tensions, is this turbulence creating a buying window, or is the market already pricing in any future recovery? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 30.8% Overvalued At $13.88, the main narrative on American Airlines Group pegs fair value meaningfully lower at $10.61, setting up a clear gap between market price and that view.  There is a single reason why American is the least attractive of US legacy carriers (in terms of investing, anyway), its balance sheet. If most airlines and certainly those in the US are loaded up to the hilt with debt, American goes so far as to boast negative equity, any startup would go belly up with a balance sheet such as this one. Now, you can survive and even generate decent returns with a precarious capital structure, but of course you are super sensitive to any shock on the demand side of your business, hitting both revenues and margins, and that is where the clouds gather on American. After the industry's recent warnings regarding falling travel demand, the already cut throat competition for market share will get yet more intensive, while margins will inevitably come under pressure.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what sits behind that $10.61 fair value, according to PittTheYounger? The story leans heavily on specific revenue growth, profit margins, and a future earnings multiple that has to work hard to justify the current share price. Curious which of those inputs does the heavy lifting in this narrative and how sensitive that outcome is to small tweaks in the assumptions, including the discount rate and margin profile? Result: Fair Value of $10.61 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, recent annual revenue growth of 5.70% and net income growth of 32.46%, along with plans to lift premium yields, could pressure or shift this cautious thesis. Find out about the key risks to this American Airlines Group narrative. Another View: SWS DCF Points to Deep Undervaluation The user narrative pins fair value at $10.61 and calls AAL overvalued, but our DCF model lands in a very different place. Future cash flows imply a value of $40.55 per share, around 66% above the current $13.88 price. Which story do you think fits the risk on AAL's balance sheet? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. AAL Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out American Airlines Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own American Airlines Group Narrative If you are not fully convinced by any of these views, or simply want to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a tailored narrative for American Airlines in just a few minutes and Do it your way. A great starting point for your American Airlines Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If American Airlines has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the screener to uncover other opportunities that might fit your style and risk comfort.  Target income potential by reviewing 13 dividend fortresses that offer higher yields while you assess whether their payouts line up with your goals. Hunt for value by checking screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems where strong fundamentals may not yet be fully appreciated by the wider market. Prioritise resilience by focusing on 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on financial strength and business stability.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"executive","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}