A Look At Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) Valuation As Q4 Earnings Turnaround Draws Closer

Simply Wall St.

Feb 12

Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) heads into Thursday’s Q4 earnings report with heightened attention, as analysts expect a 12.1% year-over-year revenue increase following a prior period of decline for the company...

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See our latest analysis for Diebold Nixdorf. Diebold Nixdorf’s recent momentum has been firm, with a 7 day share price return of 4.67% and a year to date share price return of 13.13%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 56.08% shows how strongly the stock has recovered ahead of this earnings update from earlier weakness. If this earnings setup has you looking beyond a single name, it could be a good moment to scan 22 top founder-led companies as a fresh source of ideas beyond the usual watchlist. With the shares up strongly over the past year, trading at $72.36 against an average analyst target of $79.00 and with some models implying a wider intrinsic discount, you have to ask whether there is still a buying opportunity here or whether the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 8.4% Undervalued Diebold Nixdorf’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $79, a premium to the $72.36 last close, and builds that view on a detailed multi year shift toward higher margin banking and retail platforms.  Growing adoption of self-checkout, AI-driven checkout, and \"smart vision\" solutions in the retail vertical, especially in North America, where pilot programs are beginning to convert, taps into a multi-year upgrade cycle for automation hardware and software, expanding Diebold's non-banking revenue base and improving top-line growth and profitability via increased software mix.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what sits behind that price tag? The narrative leans on firm revenue assumptions, a sharp earnings inflection and a profit margin profile that looks very different from today. The bigger twist is the earnings multiple it assumes the market is willing to pay for that mix. Want to see how those moving parts add up to $79? Result: Fair Value of $79 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that story can break if cash usage and ATM demand fade faster than expected, or if software and services margins fail to ramp as analysts model. Find out about the key risks to this Diebold Nixdorf narrative. Another View On What The Market Is Paying For DBD That $79 fair value rests on long term cash flow assumptions, but the current P/E of 51.3x tells a different story. It sits above the Tech industry at 21.5x and above DBD’s own fair ratio of 44.7x, which points to valuation risk if expectations cool. To see how those earnings multiples stack up in more detail, and what they could mean if the market moves closer to the fair ratio, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. could help you stress test your own view. NYSE:DBD P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own Diebold Nixdorf Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view of DBD in just a few minutes using Do it your way. A great starting point for your Diebold Nixdorf research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If DBD is already on your radar, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not late to the next opportunity.  Spot potential bargains early by scanning our list of 51 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with price tags that may not reflect their underlying strength. Strengthen your income game by reviewing 13 dividend fortresses, focused on companies offering higher yields with an emphasis on durability. Prioritise resilience by checking 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores, highlighting businesses with lower overall risk scores that may suit a steadier approach.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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