PepsiCo's (PEP) Q4 results are likely to be largely in line with expectations, with no major changes to guidance, UBS said in a note Tuesday.

The analysts said that while Consumer Staples stocks have risen sharply to start 2026, PepsiCo shares are flat year to date, reflecting investor skepticism that recent actions in North America will significantly improve organic sales growth.

Investors may wait for clearer signs of top-line improvement before re-engaging, but with earnings growth in line with or better than peers and room for valuation expansion, "we think the risk/reward continues to skew to the upside," the analysts added.

For Q4, organic sales are expected to grow 1.9%, slightly below consensus but representing a 60-basis-point improvement from Q3. This outlook is driven by another strong quarter internationally, with growth of about 3.8%, and modest improvement in North America, where growth is expected to turn positive at 0.5% from a decline in the prior quarter, the analysts said.

They added that investor focus is likely to be on PepsiCo Foods North America, which has struggled over the past two years. "We are forecasting organic sales to be down 1.5%, but we think simply showing some improvement could be enough to drive confidence that the segment is on a better trajectory."

UBS is maintaining its price target of $170 and buy rating on the stock.

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