Nvidia Is Stuck in "Uncertainty" Over China Sales. This Analyst Still Expects Gains

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Nvidia stock continued to move sideways early on Tuesday amid doubts over the prospective sales of the company's H200 chips to Chinese customers. but KeyBanc analyst John Vinh is backing the shares to eventually resume their rally.

Nvidia shares were broadly flat at $185.00 in premarket trading. The stock rose less than 0.1% on Monday and has been largely range-bound for several months.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said demand for the H200 chip designed for China's AI sector is "very high" and that he doesn't expect issues from the Chinese government, speaking last week at the CES trade show, formerly known as the Consumer Electronics Show.

Nvidia has orders for more than two million H200 chips but authorities in Beijing have asked some technology companies to pause their orders while they decide how many domestically produced chips they should purchase alongside Nvidia's hardware, according to Reuters. Nvidia isn't asking for upfront payment for H200 chips, Reuters reported Tuesday.

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia stock, with a $275 price target, in a research note Monday.

"China's demand for H200 is for 1.5 million this year, but uncertainty remains when licenses will be approved, creating uncertainty on how many GPUs will be shipped to China," Vinh wrote.

Still, the KeyBanc analyst expects Nvidia stock to eventually move higher as attention shifts to the launch of its next-generation Vera Rubin hardware in the second half of the year.

"We expect mass production of Vera Rubin at the end of 2Q26 with volume production of VR NVL72 racks set to ramp in 4Q26," Vinh wrote.

Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was up 2.5% and Broadcom was down 0.2% in premarket trading. KeyBanc's Vinh upgraded his rating on AMD based on strong sales of central processing units for servers.

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