By Tae Kim

A robust forecast for sales from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. may not be enough to satisfy investors, at least in the near term, according to Susquehanna.

On Monday, analyst Mehdi Hosseini reiterated a Positive rating on TSMC shares but cautioned about the company's revenue guidance for 2026.

TSMC's outlook for revenue growth "may disappoint some investors," he wrote. "We encourage investors stay focused on TSM's EPS power."

In midmorning trading, TSMC's American depositary receipts were up 0.7% to $325.92. Shares are up about 55% over the past 12 months.

The analyst believes Wall Street investors are counting on a forecast that revenue will grow 30%, but he predicts the company's outlook may be in the range of 25% to 30%. TSMC may be setting a lower bar on purpose, Hosseini said.

"In prior years, initial guidance was followed by upward revisions in the April and July earnings call," he wrote. "We believe 2026 revenue is trending close to 30% range, with TSM's 'beat and raise' strategy."

TSMC dominates the market for manufacturing high-end chips. It leads the market for making semiconductors used for AI applications, including chips from Nvidia. The company also manufactures the core processors inside Apple iPhones, Qualcomm mobile chipsets, and processors made by Advanced Micro Devices.

TSMC will report its fourth-quarter earnings results before the market opens on Thursday.

Write to Tae Kim at tae.kim@barrons.com

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January 12, 2026 11:56 ET (16:56 GMT)

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