Cango: Execution Delivered, Upside Not Yet Priced In

格隆汇
Yesterday

3Q25 Results Mark a Step-Change in Scale, Reinforcing Operational Discipline. Cango delivered a solid third quarter that exceeded our estimates and showcased the company’s strengthened execution capability. Total revenue reached US$224.6 million, up 60.6% QoQ, driven by US$220.9 million from bitcoin mining and net income of US$37.3 million. Operational performance continued to scale in line with management’s strategy: deployed hashrate remains at 50 EH/s, utilization consistently exceeds 90%, and the company’s global footprint continues to mature as hardware upgrades translate into sustained efficiency gains. While ADR termination is not the thematic focus of this quarter, the transition to a direct NYSE listing offers clear structural advantages. It removes cross-border frictions, improves liquidity and transparency, and aligns Cango’s trading profile more closely with U.S. mining benchmarks.

Mining Is the Valuation Anchor, and Updated BTC Holdings Highlight Even Deeper Undervaluation. Cango’s mining franchise continues to provide a transparent, liquid, and quantifiable valuation foundation. According to Cango Group’s latest weekly disclosure, as of November 27 the company holds 6,902.5 BTC, further strengthening its balance-sheet-backed downside protection. Re-running valuation scenarios with the updated figure highlights an even more pronounced gap between intrinsic asset value and current equity pricing: Bull Case (BTC = US$110,000): 6,902.5 × 110,000 = US$759 million, already exceeding the company’s current market capitalization based on bitcoin holdings alone, before adding machine value, cash, or receivables. Base Case (BTC = US$90,000): 6,902.5 × 90,000 = US$621 million, covering a substantial portion of equity value even without assigning any value to the 50 EH/s mining platform or emerging AI and energy businesses. Bear Case (BTC = US$70,000): 6,902.5 × 70,000 = US$483 million, establishing a clear valuation floor when combined with mining machines and cash on hand. Cango produced 602.6 BTC in October with an average operating hashrate of 46.09 EH/s, again demonstrating operational stability even as industry difficulty rises. Across all scenarios—from bullish to conservative—the stock continues to trade as if only a fraction of its bitcoin reserves were reflected in the equity, suggesting that investors are pricing in minimal value for the broader mining operation.

AI + Green Power Strategy Offers Long-Term Optionality That the Market Has Yet to Price In. Cango’s strategic roadmap—progressing from bitcoin mining, to energy access, to AI compute—mirrors paths that have historically led to structural re-ratings for early digital-infrastructure movers. The company is pursuing a differentiated model centered on distributed compute nodes, targeting small- and mid-sized enterprises with modular GPU pools rather than competing in capital-intensive hyperscale deployments. Energy-linked infrastructure is progressing as planned: green-power projects in Oman and Indonesia are expected to come online within 12–24 months, providing cost stability and power availability as AI inference workloads become increasingly energy constrained. Early pilots in compute and energy validate the feasibility of the model, executed under strict IRR and technical thresholds. When viewed alongside the scenario math above, a notable observation emerges: the market appears to be assigning virtually zero valuation to Cango’s AI and green-power businesses, despite clear strategic progress and a multi-year execution roadmap. This creates an asymmetry in the equity story—mining provides a stable earnings and asset base, while AI and energy offer unpriced upside optionality.

Valuation: Discount Persists Despite Improving Fundamentals and Structural Catalysts Ahead. Cango continues to trade at a substantial discount to U.S. mining peers, despite comparable or superior operational efficiency and a broader strategic footprint. While peers command materially higher multiples, Cango’s valuation remains anchored almost exclusively to its bitcoin holdings, with limited recognition for its operating platform or long-term compute and energy strategy. Cango’s shares are currently trading at US$1.45 per share, with a market capitalization of US$528 million. We forecast revenues of US$668 million and US$850 million for CY2025 and CY2026, respectively. This equates to price-to-sales (P/S) multiples of 0.8x and 0.6x, significantly below the peer group averages of 8.0x and 5.6x. Several catalysts could contribute to a structural re-rating: 1) broader institutional accessibility following the direct NYSE listing; 2) continued accumulation and transparency of BTC holdings; and 3) milestone execution in energy and AI, which can shift perception from “pure-play miner” toward “emerging digital-infrastructure operator.” Taken together, Cango’s combination of liquid assets, high-efficiency mining operations, and unpriced strategic optionality presents a compelling risk-reward profile as the company enters its next phase of growth.

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