MW Black Friday doesn't guarantee lower prices, as tariffs have led some stores to raise them

By Tomi Kilgore

Auto-parts retailers are lifting prices on more items than they are cutting, while athleisure is seeing little price changes, Oppenheimer notes

Some retailers are raising prices on more products than they're cutting them for, as tariffs have disrupted the holiday discounting season.

If you're waiting for Black Friday deals before buying, depending on what's on your shopping list, you may be out of luck this year.

A study by Oppenheimer on recent price adjustments by retailers shows that tariffs have disrupted the traditional holiday shopping season. While meaningful promotions and discounts are certainly taking hold, they may eat more into retailer profits than usual given higher costs.

That's why, since President Trump's "liberation day" tariff announcement in April, some stores have actually raised prices on more items than they have cut them for.

And while some retailers have said consumers have been waiting longer than usual this year for Black Friday deals, there's reason to believe they may have to keep waiting.

"Recent news indicates clearly that prospects for further trade-dispute escalation and/or all out trade war remains a meaningful risk," Oppenheimer retail analyst Andrew Chasanoff wrote in note to clients. "Conversations with managements of leading consumer enterprises suggest that tariff- driven price adjustments are taking shape, and are likely to continue over the next several months."

The good news is that the main sector in which prices are rising more than falling may not be the best for finding holiday gifts. Chasanoff said that within auto-parts retail, 43% of tariff-sensitive items tracked have seen their prices rise since late April, compared with 39% in the previous report published in late October. The price increases have been "modest," he wrote, and on lower-priced products such as floor mats and mufflers.

Among some of the stores in the sector, O'Reilly Automotive $(ORLY)$ has raised prices on 39% of items tracked, while cutting prices on just 17% of items. AutoZone $(AZO)$ has raised prices on 55% of items and cut prices on 15%, while Advance Auto Parts (AAP) has put in price increases on 31% of items but lowered prices on just 6%.

Chasanoff said he's also witnessed "minimal pricing actions" across athleisure apparel. Prices have increased on 40% of items tracked at Nike $(NKE)$, while another 40% have remained unchanged and 20% have seen prices decline. For Lululemon Athletica $(LULU)$, 22% of items have seen both price increases and decreases.

Overall, of the 19 retailers tracked, he noted 31% of items saw price increases, 31% saw price decreases and prices were unchanged on 38%.

Separately, Chasanoff said the study showed that the home-furnishing category was "highly promotional," with prices falling on items that previously saw prices rise to counteract tariffs. Within the sector, he said the average price decline on items that were cut was 24%.

For Williams-Sonoma $(WSM)$, prices were lowered on 30% of items tracked, by an average of 13%. Based on Chasanoff's analysis, home-furnishing goods at large had seen price cuts by an average of roughly 35%.

-Tomi Kilgore

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November 26, 2025 13:11 ET (18:11 GMT)

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