Analysts see smaller-than-usual storage withdrawal last week
Record US gas output allows for increased stockpiling
Colder weather expected to increase gas demand for heating
LNG export feedgas reaches new daily high
European gas prices lower amid Russia-Ukraine peace talks
By Scott DiSavino
Nov 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Wednesday on record flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants, the expiration of a lower-priced contract, and forecasts for colder weather and higher demand this week than previously expected.
That price increase came ahead of a federal report expected to show energy firms pulled less gas from storage last week than usual for this time of year, and amid record output, ample amounts of gas in storage, and lower gas prices in Europe on Ukraine peace talks.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.8 cents, or 2.6%, to $4.599 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since November 13.
On Tuesday, when December futures were still the front-month, the contract closed at its lowest since November 18.
Analysts forecast energy firms pulled 2 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended November 21.
That compares with a decline of two bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 25 bcf over the past five years (2020-2024). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.
Record output this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, with about 5% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly colder than normal through December 11.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 122.6 bcfd this week to 140.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
Average gas flows to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 18.1 bcfd so far this month, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.
On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to reach 18.9 bcfd on Wednesday, up from the current all-time daily high of 18.6 bcfd on November 15.
In other LNG news, the Imsaikah LNG vessel was moving across the Caribbean Sea on its way to Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's XOM.N 2.4 bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analyst comments.
The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG this year or early next year.
Week ended Nov 21 Forecast | Week ended Nov 14 Actual | Year ago Nov 21 | Five-year average Nov 21 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -2 | -14 | -2 | -25 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,944 | 3,946 | 3,967 | 3,775 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.5% | +3.8% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 4.55 | 4.42 | 2.98 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 9.97 | 9.97 | 13.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.13 | 11.25 | 14.12 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 414 | 395 | 372 | 337 | 364 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 6 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 420 | 401 | 375 | 344 | 370 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.5 | 110.7 | 110.6 | 103.6 | 99.2 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.9 | N/A | 8.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 118.2 | 119.5 | 119.5 | N/A | 107.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | N/A | 5.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 13.9 | 12.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 10.9 | 12.2 | 17.2 | 13.1 | 11.0 |
U.S. Residential | 16.3 | 19.0 | 28.6 | 20.7 | 15.7 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.3 | 31.2 | 31.7 | 30.9 | 30.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.5 | 24.1 | 25.9 | 24.6 | 24.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 91.0 | 94.6 | 112.0 | 97.2 | 89.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 118.3 | 122.6 | 140.1 | N/A | 110.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 87 | 87 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 85 | 83 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 86 | 85 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 21 | Week ended Nov 14 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
40 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 18 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 21 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 4.12 | 4.15 | 2.10 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 4.03 | 3.80 | 1.99 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 4.33 | 4.32 | 3.29 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 3.75 | 3.61 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.91 | 3.76 | 1.98 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 6.97 | 4.46 | 2.70 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 4.42 | 4.07 | 2.55 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 2.18 | 2.21 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 78.88 | 79.84 | 44.71 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 38.71 | 46.83 | 35.99 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 55.46 | 55.46 | 37.13 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 35.00 | 35.00 | 29.23 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 37.41 | 37.41 | 30.01 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))