Onto Innovation (ONTO) Is Down 8.0% After Q3 Earnings Miss and Lowered Guidance – Has The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St.

Nov 17

Onto Innovation recently announced its third quarter 2025 earnings, reporting sales of US$218.19 million and net income of US$28.22 million, both lower than the same quarter last year, and issued ...

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An interesting detail is that, despite posting higher nine-month sales than the prior year, Onto Innovation's net income for the period declined, and no shares were repurchased during the most recent quarter under its ongoing buyback program. We'll examine how lower third quarter earnings and revised fourth quarter forecasts could shape the outlook for Onto Innovation's investment narrative. These 13 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.AdvertisementOnto Innovation Investment Narrative Recap To believe in Onto Innovation as a shareholder, you would need confidence in a robust rebound in customer demand for advanced node and AI packaging solutions, especially with fourth quarter guidance signaling a pickup after a weaker third quarter. While the recent earnings miss may concern those focused on short-term momentum, the company's outlook for higher fourth-quarter revenue appears to leave its primary short-term catalyst, the anticipated demand surge, largely intact; however, risks tied to timing and strength of this rebound remain notable.\n\nAmong recent company announcements, the updated fourth quarter guidance stands out as most relevant. With management forecasting revenue between US$250 million and US$265 million and diluted EPS up to US$1.00, this projection directly addresses whether momentum lost in the third quarter may be recaptured, and serves as a critical signal to investors watching for confirmation of a recovery in key end-markets.\n\nIn contrast, investors should also be aware that delays in customer spending on next-generation AI packaging and advanced nodes could leave earnings vulnerable if fourth quarter improvements...\n Read the full narrative on Onto Innovation (it's free!)Onto Innovation's narrative projects $1.4 billion revenue and $311.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 11.0% yearly revenue growth and a $111.3 million earnings increase from $199.9 million.Uncover how Onto Innovation's forecasts yield a $149.38 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesONTO Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025  Three members of the Simply Wall St Community placed fair value estimates from US$132 to US$162.67 per share. As investor opinions remain wide, keep in mind the outsized effect that shifts in AI packaging demand could have on Onto Innovation’s future performance.\nExplore 3 other fair value estimates on Onto Innovation - why the stock might be worth as much as 27% more than the current price!Build Your Own Onto Innovation NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Onto Innovation research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.Our free Onto Innovation research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Onto Innovation's overall financial health at a glance.Seeking Other Investments?Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped:The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 25 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}