MW Executives are starting to talk about the shutdown more on earnings calls - and some are sounding more concerned

By Bill Peters

Some companies are getting more cautious with their forecasts amid longest-ever U.S. government shutdown

People walk through the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on Friday. The Federal Aviation Administration announced that it would reduce flights by 10% at 40 major airports nationwide, amid air-traffic-control staffing shortages resulting from the federal government shutdown.

As the U.S. government shutdown stretches on, more corporate executives are starting to pay attention - and some are getting more cautious on the months ahead.

The words "government shutdown" came up on 76 earnings calls held by S&P 500 SPX companies between Sept. 15 and Nov. 6, according to a FactSet report on Friday. That's the highest figure since the last such shutdown, which ran from late 2018 into early 2019.

The FactSet report noted that 29 of those companies indicated they weren't yet seeing any real impact from the shutdown on their businesses. Yet 22 did say they had tried to account for the shutdown's impact in their financial forecasts.

"Many of these companies stated they were providing a wider guidance range or more conservative guidance range than normal to account for the uncertainty of the government shutdown," John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet, said in the report.

The current shutdown, which started on Oct. 1, has become the longest in the nation's history - jeopardizing the federal food-assistance program known as SNAP for millions of Americans, and raising fears of chaos at the nation's airports as people prepare to travel for the holidays. The shutdown has also arrived on top of existing concerns about slower hiring, persistent inflation and the economic impact of tariffs.

Any pause in SNAP benefits could affect consumer spending at store chains like Walmart Inc. $(WMT)$ and dollar stores like Dollar General Corp. $(DG)$. Executives at those chains and others could comment on the shutdown's impact when they report in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the government said it would cut flights by 10% at 40 airports across the U.S., amid concerns about safety and the strain on airport staff who have been working without pay or calling out of work. American Airlines Group Inc. $(AAL)$, Delta Air Lines Inc. $(DAL)$ and United Airlines Holdings Inc. $(UAL)$, the nation's largest airlines, are still offering international and nonstop domestic flights.

Michael Leskinen, United's chief financial officer, said during the carrier's earnings call last month that it had tried to factor the shutdown into its fourth-quarter outlook. But he suggested there were limits.

"I think we've calibrated the range of earnings per share for Q4 with government shutdown in mind," he said. "It is one act of God, not two acts of God. But we've got reasonable room there for continued government shutdown. But it's not infinite."

Elsewhere, the defense contractors who do business with the government have also said the shutdown had affected financial planning.

Kimberly Kuryea, General Dynamics Corp.'s (GD) chief financial officer, said last month that "the uncertain duration and future potential impacts of the government shutdown creates a lack of clear visibility into our cash forecast for the remainder of the year."

Kathy Warden, chief executive at Northrop Grumman Corp. $(NOC)$, said in an earnings call last month that the company was also feeling the shutdown's effects.

"We are certainly seeing in recent weeks the government shutdown having some impact on the government's ability to move quickly to make decisions and have the right resources available," she said.

Warden added that the defense contractor's 2025 forecast included some delays to program awards, but that the company was assuming the government could find a way to reopen by roughly the middle of November.

"If it goes beyond that, we may start to see some additional delays in getting funding on contracts or even delays in receiving payment before year-end that could impact our cash flows for the year," the Northrop CEO said. "We don't anticipate that at this time, but it's certainly something we're watching."

Elsewhere, hotel chain Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. $(HLT)$ said the shutdown was "affecting the numbers somewhat," while cloud-security firm F5 Inc. (FFIV) said its own outlook "assumed some level of disruption" in business with the U.S. government.

Software firm ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) noted that "the ongoing government shutdown may impact deal timing in our U.S. federal business in Q4." And cruise-line operator Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. $(NCLH)$ said it would be "hard not to believe" that the shutdown was a modest drag on its business.

Still, companies like Paychex Inc. $(PAYX)$, American Express Co. $(AXP)$ and IBM Corp. $(IBM)$ said they hadn't yet seen any major disruptions to business or didn't expect any. Package deliverer United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) last month said it hadn't seen any hiccups in service yet, adding that the peak shipping season had so far been strong for its customers.

Meanwhile, Ticketmaster parent Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (LYV) said that due to the shutdown, there was little detail to offer on the state of a recent Federal Trade Commission lawsuit accusing the company of illegal ticket-resale practices.

As concerns about the shutdown's impact grow, some observed that this weekend, in particular, would be pivotal as far as progress on a deal in Washington to end the shutdown.

"In the U.S., just to be clear, we haven't seen a change in trend yet," Scott Schenkel, chief financial officer of online travel platform Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE), said on an earnings call Thursday. "But we're watching very carefully, and this weekend will be a critical one as we head into that."

-Bill Peters

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November 09, 2025 10:00 ET (15:00 GMT)

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