MW Here's how fast normal airline operations can be expected to resume when the government shutdown ends

By Claudia Assis

Flight cancellations represent a significant disruption for airlines, just as they do for passengers. It won't be easy to achieve a new normal.

Thanksgiving travelers last year at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport.

As U.S. lawmakers inch closer to a compromise that could reopen the federal government, hope is edging upward that a fraught weekend in air travel, marred by thousands of shutdown-related flight cancellations, would be the last of the havoc at America's airports.

Just how rapidly normal airline operations can be expected to resume, however, is up for debate - particularly as some fear a wave of resignations among air-traffic controllers.

In short, it will not be as simple as "hitting the undo button," said Stephen Trent, an independent airline analyst who spent decades at major investment banks in New York. There was a serious disruption in airlines' equipment and labor flow, he said.

It will take some time for airlines to right their operations after the federally mandated capacity cuts, which impacted crew and maintenance schedules alongside airport arrival and departure boards.

Here's what to expect:

Are overworked air-traffic controllers willing to return?

Bob Mann, a former airline executive who runs his own consulting firm, R.W. Mann & Co., said he would expect airlines to take about 24 hours, and perhaps as many as 36, to resume regular operations.

The Trump administration asked the companies last week to cut flights starting Friday in the name of safety in the skies. The cuts are to continue as long as the shutdown also continues. President Donald Trump urged controllers to show up for work in a Truth Social post on Monday festooned with his signature all-caps phrasings, promising a bonus to those who did not take time off.

"The longer this goes on, the more crew members and airplanes are out of position, and the longer will take to bring it to normal," Mann said. There's also disruption to maintenance schedules, which are worked out in advance and depend on where aircraft need to be at maintenance points.

Related: The government shutdown looks on track to end this week. Here are key remaining hurdles.

Then there are labor considerations. Air-traffic controllers have been overworked as a long-running shortage, which started before the pandemic and was exacerbated by it, has defied several efforts to recruit more people into the job.

In larger metro areas, controllers were already working six days a week with mandatory overtime.

If it takes longer to re-establish the air-traffic-control workforce then flight cancellations would have to continue at some level, Mann said.

Air-traffic controllers missed their first paychecks last week after receiving only partial paychecks in mid-October. Along with airport screeners, they are among the federal workers classified as essential and expected to work through a shutdown. They may increasingly be calling out sick, however.

And some of the most recent FAA Academy graduates, earning about $60,000 a year, may consider another career, he said.

Thanksgiving looms

The closer we get to Thanksgiving, the harder it will be to reshuffle the passengers affected, as there are increasingly fewer seats available.

Wall Street has been sanguine, amid hope that the shutdown won't extend to Thanksgiving. Airline stocks XX:XAL were mixed on Monday, with 17 days to go till the holiday, after ending last week with gains.

For now it remains lower-demand "shoulder" season, and airlines are better able to rebook passengers, especially the larger carriers that offer multiple daily flights to major destinations, and those whose fleets include both big and smaller aircraft.

This is a time when "complexity pays off," J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note Monday.

"Simply put, the more small aircraft an airline has, the less their passengers will be inconvenienced," the analysts said. Southwest, in contrast - it flies an all-Boeing 737 fleet $(BA)$ - "will disrupt a higher percentage of their system passengers."

Trent, the independent analyst, said budget airlines will be more impacted than the full-service airlines such as American Airlines Group Inc. $(AAL)$ , Delta Air Lines Inc. $(DAL)$ and United Airlines Holdings Inc. $(UAL)$.

A full-service carrier "has more ancillary firepower" via loyalty programs and co-branded credit cards, offering a myriad of service levels, according to Trent. Plus they have so far preserved their lucrative international flights, he noted.

This government shutdown is already the longest on record, eclipsing the 2018-19 shutdown, which lasted 35 days. A ground stop to and from New York City's LaGuardia Airport in January 2019 was one of the key moments leading to that shutdown's end.

The current shutdown began on Oct. 1, mostly because President Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans have been locked in a standoff with Democratic lawmakers over including an extension of Obamacare subsidies in a bill to fund the federal government.

-Claudia Assis

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November 10, 2025 13:59 ET (18:59 GMT)

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