Adds latest prices
Record LNG export flows drive demand increase
Gas output in Lower 48 states declines in October
Forecasts predict higher gas demand in coming weeks
Oil-to-gas ratio hits lowest since Dec 2022
Gas storage levels about 4% above normal, easing supply concerns
By Scott DiSavino
Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% on Friday to a six-month high, on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants, as output dropped and forecasters expected more demand over the next two weeks than they did previously.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 16.8 cents, or 4.2%, to $4.124 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since April 3. For the first time in four weeks, the contract remained technically overbought for a second straight day.
For the week, the front-month was up about 25%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since a record of around 33% in May 2024. Last week, the contract rose 10%.
For the month, the contract was up about 25%, its biggest monthly percentage gain since February. It gained 10% last month.
Crude futures have dropped 12% CLc1 over the past three months, so the oil-to-gas ratio, the level where oil trades compared with gas, narrowed to 15-to-1, its lowest since December 2022. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas.
So far in 2025, crude prices have averaged about 19 times over gas, down from 33 times over gas in 2024 and 21 times over gas during the prior five years (2019-2023).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.5 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.
Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 15, which should limit heating demand.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 108.9 bcfd this week and next before rising to 109.8 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.6 bcfd so far in October from 15.7 bcfd in September and surpassing the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to 17.9 bcfd on Friday, which would top the current record of 17.3 bcfd on October 25.
Week ended Oct 31 Actual | Week ended Oct 24 Actual | Year ago Oct 31 | Five-year average Oct 31 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +37 | +74 | +68 | +42 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,919 | 3,882 | 3,921 | 3,753 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.4% | +4.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 4.08 | 3.96 | 2.58 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.48 | 10.54 | 12.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.22 | 11.15 | 13.35 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ HDDs | 200 | 202 | 134 | 212 | 231 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 18 | 17 | 49 | 23 | 16 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 218 | 219 | 183 | 235 | 247 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.0 | 107.6 | 107.4 | 102.8 | 98.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.4 | N/A | 7.4 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.5 | 115.2 | 114.8 | N/A | 105.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | N/A | 2.2 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.5 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 16.9 | 16.8 | 17.9 | 13.1 | 11.3 |
U.S. Commercial | 6.8 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 7.7 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 7.1 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.5 | 32.3 | 29.5 | 34.0 | 31.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.8 | 23.4 | 23.5 | 22.6 | 22.4 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.2 | 83.4 | 82.3 | 80.4 | 76.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 101.9 | 108.8 | 109.0 | N/A | 95.9 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 94 | 93 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 90 | 89 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 91 | 89 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 24 | Week ended Oct 17 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 12 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
41 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.46 | 3.36 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.15 | 2.99 | 1.64 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.72 | 3.79 | 3.72 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 3.01 | 2.78 | 1.53 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.28 | 3.12 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.32 | 3.22 | 1.80 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.63 | 3.63 | 2.60 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.00 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.30 | 1.31 | 0.77 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 44.73 | 52.90 | 40.14 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 56.07 | 64.16 | 41.96 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 46.59 | 46.59 | 55.48 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 34.58 | 34.58 | 45.83 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 35.57 | 35.57 | 35.86 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by David Holmes and David Gregorio)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))