The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2019 ET - Amplitude Energy's production guidance for FY 2026 looks conservative to Jarden. Amplitude has forecast output of 69-74 terajoules equivalent per day. That is some 4% below Jarden's forecast of 74.1 TJ/day at the midpoint of the range, and also a miss to consensus hopes. Still, analyst Nik Burns notes that Amplitude has form here. A year ago, its guidance looked a touch light and was subsequently upgraded twice. Jarden has a buy call and A$0.29/share price target on Amplitude, which is down 1.9% at A$0.26. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2007 ET - Oil edges lower in the early Asian session amid prospects of a Russia-Ukraine meeting. NATO Secretary-General Rutte said Russian President Putin has agreed to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky. "Most issues such as the ceasefire, security guarantees and how the process toward peace will unfold are yet to be determined," TD Securities' Bart Melek says in a research report. "An outcome which would see a ratcheting down of tensions and remove threats of secondary tariffs or sanctions would see oil drift lower," the head of Commodity Strategy adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are down 0.1% at $63.33/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.1% lower at $66.55/bbl. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1946 ET - Woodside Energy's latest result again raises the question of how long it will continue to pay out 80% of underlying profit as dividends, says Barrenjoey analyst Dale Koenders. Woodside declared an interim dividend of US$0.53/share. That was above Barrenjoey's forecast of US$0.51 and consensus hopes for US$0.52. The payout represents an annualized yield of 6.9%. Woodside's gearing reached 19.5% at end of 1H, compared to a target of 10-20% through the cycle. Barrenjoey has a neutral call on Woodside. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1938 ET - BHP's dividend beat is expected to be welcomed as a modest positive by investors, says Citi analyst Paul McTaggart. The miner's FY 2026 cost guidance is in line with expectations, he says. Underlying profit and Ebitda is line with consensus. Citi has a buy rating and A$43.00 target on BHP. The stock ended Monday at A$41.47/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

1528 ET - Oil futures settle higher as President Trump meets in Washington with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and expresses optimism about bringing the Russia-Ukraine war to an end. "Major differences between Ukraine and Russia remain and the possibility of U.S. sanctions on Russia or secondary tariffs on India, albeit unlikely, remain worthy of some geo-risk premium," Ritterbusch says in a note. The firm remains bearish on oil, however, seeing "further deterioration on both the crude and product balances going forward as the Trump tariffs begin to bite into oil demand in the coming months at a time when OPEC output will be maintaining a steady up-trend." WTI settles up 1% at $63.42 a barrel, and Brent gains 1.1% to $66.60. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1459 ET - U.S. natural gas futures lose ground as weather forecasts turn milder, limiting implied power-sector demand for gas. "The market continues to discount near-term heat in favor of expectations for looser balances ahead," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "The forward curve remains under pressure as attention shifts to the anticipated late-August cooldown. Rallies have been short-lived in recent weeks, with prices repeatedly failing to build momentum without a sustained tightening driver." Nymex natural gas settles down 0.9% at $2.890/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1334 ET - Oil futures extend early gains with market focus on meetings in Washington between Presidents Trump and Zelensky, as well as other European leaders. Trump is trying to put together an agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war. "The U.S.-Russia meeting in Alaska was described as productive, but yielded no Ukraine deal, keeping recent sanction rhetoric in the background rather than on the front burner," Gelber & Associates says in a note. "Traders had hoped for clarity on potential secondary measures that could affect Russian crude flows; for now, the status quo prevails." WTI is up 1.1% at $63.47 a barrel and Brent is 1% higher at $66.52 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1324 ET - The Treasury Department's closely watched safe harbor guidance released Friday is far better for solar companies than the industry had feared, say J.P. Morgan analysts. Many had expected the rules to make it far harder to demonstrate having begun and completed a project in time to retain tax credits. But instead the guidance preserved current rules or established relatively lenient thresholds for securing the credits. J.P. Morgan's clean energy coverage traded up an average of 5.9% on Friday. "We expect order activity to resume and for there to now be better visibility into demand through" 2030, the analysts say. (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)

0947 ET - A loss of near-term heat in weekend weather forecasts renews pressure on U.S. natural gas futures. "A bearish weekend weather shift and inconsistent LNG compounds a soft near-term fundamental backdrop," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Friday's commitment of traders report showed speculator short positions at their highest since November, he says. "Lofty shorts increase the risk of a short-covering turn higher in Nymex gas pricing (as appeared the case on Friday), even as fundamental drivers remain weak." Nymex natural gas is off 1.9% at $2.861/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0837 ET - Crude oil futures continue rangebound with the market focused on prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war as Ukrainian President Zelensky travels to Washington following the Trump-Putin summit Friday. "While we believe a peace deal is in the making, we also think that international markets may not react positively to Trump's push for Putin, particularly in pressuring Zelensky to give up the quest for NATO membership and certain territories," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. "This is likely to be unfavorable for both international and U.S. markets; in other words, skepticism and cautiousness could emerge." WTI is up 0.5% at $63.10 a barrel and Brent is 0.4% higher at $66.09. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0750 ET - Vestas Wind Systems will get a boost from better-than-expected U.S. government guidelines on which projects will qualify for wind and solar tax credits, J.P. Morgan analysts write. The Danish wind-turbine manufacturer had previously warned about the risk of the U.S. Treasury increasing the 5% capital expenditure requirement or reducing the construction period timeline, they add. Against these initial fears, Friday's updated guidance is materially positive and should give the sector better visibility through to 2030, they add. The 'physical work test' and 'continuity requirements' are favorable for manufacturers like Vestas, they add. Shares trade up 16% at 133.35 Danish kroner. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0738 ET - Updated tax credit guidance from the U.S government for wind and solar projects is close to the best possible outcome for the sector compared to initial fears, Jefferies analysts write. The new guidance removes uncertainty for developers and means projects starting in 2026 can claim tax credits until 2030, they add. Admittedly, the "physical work of a significant nature" test is less straightforward than the current 5% cost rule, they add. The addition of interconnection and permitting challenges as reasons to break the new four-year continuity requirement is an underappreciated element of the new rules, they say. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 18, 2025 20:19 ET (00:19 GMT)

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