Astrazeneca (AZN), Grifols (GRFS), and Argenx (ARGX) appear to be the least exposed to tariffs and least affected by the preliminary trade deal reached between the US and the European Union, Barclays said in a note Monday.

According to multiple reports, the US and EU have reached a preliminary trade deal that includes a flat 15% tariff on EU pharmaceutical imports, with a 0% tariff for certain generic drugs. While this would still create a modest net present value headwind for the sector, "we suggest this agreement should send a positive signal to investors that have been on the sideline for the most tariff-exposed names," the note said.

Analysts said that they believe the pharmaceutical companies most exposed to tariff risks and therefore most likely to benefit from "resolved uncertainty" are Union Chimique Belge, Sandoz, and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

The New York Times reported that the EU also agreed to invest more than $600 billion in the US, some of it in the pharmaceutical sector, as part of the agreement. Additionally, some chemical products and generics may receive exemptions from the 15% tariff, which could benefit companies like Sandoz, the analysts said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the 15% tariff would not be layered on top of other tariffs, acknowledging that though it is higher than historic levels, it is still lower than what would have been imposed without a deal, according to the note.

"With investors' base case being a 25% sector tariff, which Trump then indicated could be up to 200%, 15% on pharma products imported from the EU should be a relief; however, this assumes that any Section 232 sector-specific tariffs would not be additive," the analysts said.

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