By Lucila Sigal

BUENOS AIRES, July 17 (Reuters) - Argentina's mining exports will exceed $5 billion in 2025 as rising gold prices more than offset the decline in lithium prices, said the president of the Argentine Chamber of Mining Companies (CAEM), up from $4.6 billion in 2024.

In an interview with Reuters, Roberto Cacciola said gold and silver production, Argentina's main mining exports, will remain stable or decline slightly in 2025 due to the maturation of mining projects, but rising prices will make up for the lower volumes.

"This year (mining exports) could be above $5 billion or $5.2 billion," Cacciola said.

He described the opposite situation for lithium, as he expects an increase in production during times of falling prices.

"In terms of volume, we don't see significant changes in gold and silver, perhaps a small reduction, and in lithium, we see volume growth, but a price drop that will more or less keep lithium exports at very similar levels to those in 2024," he added.

In 2024, gold contributed $3.14 billion, or 68% of the total exported, silver $641 million, or 14% and lithium $631 million, or 13.6%, according to the National Mining Secretariat.

Argentine President Javier Milei's libertarian government is seeking to boost the promising mining sector to increase the income it so desperately needs to maintain macroeconomic stability.

To this end, it created the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which offers tax, customs, and exchange rate benefits for investments of more than $200 million.

So far, of the seven mining projects that have applied for membership, the government has only approved Anglo-Australian firm Rio Tinto's RIO.AX, RIO.L Rincon project, a $2.7 billion investment in the northern province of Salta for the construction of a lithium carbonate plant.

Cacciola said the drop in lithium prices, driven by excess supply and lower demand for electric vehicles, has led to the delay in investments. Over the past two years, oversupply from China has made prices fall by more than 90%.

"Lithium companies are currently working to break even, or some may be running at a deficit. This is expected to be temporary, but it's a fact of life," he said.

"Everyone was thinking about expanding, about growing, and now they're thinking about surviving," he said. "Some expansions have been delayed. The reality is that we're not coming back with the euphoria of 2022-2023, because the drop (in prices) was very sharp."

Argentina is the world's fourth-largest exporter of the mineral necessary for the energy transition and is part of the "lithium triangle" along with Chile and Bolivia, which hosts the world's largest reserves. It also has world-class copper projects, although none are yet in production.

Cacciola estimated that the government will extend the RIGI deadline for submitting investment projects, which expires July 8, 2026, by another year, because many projects - especially copper — have expressed interest in entering the incentive scheme.

So far, the only copper project that has applied to join the RIGI is Los Azules, owned by Canada's McEwen Copper MUX.TO.

"The RIGI is running. I think it's going to be extended, it's planned. In other words, I don't see any impediment to it being extended," Cacciola said.

The copper projects are "all ready to be submitted; they're just waiting for some definitions," he added.

(Report by Lucila Sigal; Edited by Nicolás Misculin and Jamie Freed)

((lucila.sigal@thomsonreuters.com; http://reuters.com))