Carnival (CCL) could face a flattening out of demand after delivering "big beats" in Q2 against its guidance and consensus, Deutsche Bank said in a Wednesday note.
"While CCL's 2Q beat could well be described as a "smash" relative to guidance and consensus, we attribute only a portion of it to strength in "real time" spending patterns by cruise customers," the report said.
"We estimate that more than 80% of 2Q ticket revenue was booked prior to the start of the quarter."
Looking out to 2026, the positives for the company are three full quarters of yield lift from the opening of its exclusive destination Celebration Key in Grand Bahama Island, and favorable net cruise costs exclusive of fuel in Q2 and Q3, the note said.
Headwinds could likely be rougher year-on-year comparisons on core yields, a 50-basis-point drag from the rollout of Carnival Rewards, and potential foreign exchange challenges for at least two quarters, it added.
With the vast majority of 2026 bookings still to come, the report said Carnival "may begin to experience a flattening out of demand for, and pricing power on, like-for-like itineraries."
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