Adds latest prices
Canada AECO gas prices drop as wildfires rage
US daily gas output falls to three-month low
Cheniere LNG export plants reduced for maintenance
By Scott DiSavino
June 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a three-week high on Wednesday as lower output offset forecasts for weaker demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Energy traders noted much of the demand decline will come from lower gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants during planned maintenance.
Gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.6 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $3.716 per million British thermal units. On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest level since May 9 for a second day in a row.
In Canada, spot gas prices at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta have traded near an eight-month low this week (6 cents per mmBtu on Tuesday and 10 cents on Wednesday) in a sign that wildfires had reduced demand in Alberta and trapped some of the fuel in the nation's biggest gas-producing province.
AECO prices have averaged $1.41 per mmBtu this year, 96 cents in 2024 and $2.28 over the prior five years (2019-2023).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to 103.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, down from 105.2 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary three-month low of 103 bcfd on Wednesday, down from 103.4 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 105.3 bcfd over the prior seven days. The decline on Tuesday was less than previously forecast. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Gas exports from Canada to the U.S., meanwhile, were on track to rise to 8.8 bcfd on Wednesday, up from 8.0 bcfd on Tuesday and 7.9 bcfd on Monday. That reading compares with a recent highs of 9.1 bcfd on May 22 and May 23 and an average of 8.6 bcfd over the past two weeks (May 21-June 4), according to LSEG data.
Gas exports from Canada to the U.S. were around 8.2 bcfd in June 2024 and averaged 7.3 bcfd during the month over the past five years (2020-2024). They set a record high for the month of June of 9.7 bcfd in 2022.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 94.8 bcfd this week to 97.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has fallen to 13.5 bcfd so far in June, down from 15 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16 bcfd in April.
Energy traders said LNG feedgas reductions over the past month or so were primarily due to normal spring maintenance, including work at Cheniere Energy's LNG.N plants.
Gas flows to Cheniere's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana have held at a 23-month low of around 3 bcfd since May 31, down from an average of 4.5 bcfd during May, while feedgas to the company's 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas held at a two-week low of 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday and Wednesday, down from an average of 2 bcfd in May.
Analysts have noted that gas flows to Sabine would likely remain reduced for about three weeks of maintenance from around May 31-June 22.
Week ended May 30 Forecast | Week ended May 23 Actual | Year ago May 30 | Five-year average May 30 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +111 | +101 | +94 | +98 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,587 | 2,476 | 2,886 | 2,481 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.3% | +3.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.68 | 3.72 | 2.81 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.01 | 12.00 | 10.87 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.33 | 12.30 | 12.30 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 10 | 11 | 10 | 18 | 21 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 169 | 162 | 160 | 143 | 135 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 179 | 173 | 170 | 161 | 156 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 105.4 | 104.4 | 104.5 | 101.2 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 113.4 | 111.9 | 111.7 | N/A | 104.1 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | N/A | 6.3 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 9.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
U.S. Residential | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.6 | 34.2 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 38.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.4 | 22.3 | 22.1 | 21.6 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 71.0 | 72.5 | 74.6 | 74.1 | 76.8 |
Total U.S. Demand | 95.0 | 94.8 | 97.1 | N/A | 88.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 80 | 79 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 81 | 80 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 82 | 82 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jun 6 | Week ended May 30 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 39 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.84 | 3.00 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.01 | 1.74 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.15 | 3.29 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.98 | 1.63 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.60 | 2.48 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.43 | 2.71 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.38 | 3.41 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.30 | 1.67 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.10 | 0.06 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 46.68 | 30.50 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 45.94 | 31.06 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 44.94 | 46.18 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 40.87 | 39.60 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 22.76 | 23.36 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
(Reporting by Scott DiSavinoEditing by Rod Nickel and Paul Simao)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.