US natgas prices slide 2% on higher output, lower flows to LNG export plants

Reuters
31 May
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices slide 2% on higher output, lower flows to LNG export plants

Trump license on ethane exports to China to boost US gas supplies

US LNG export feedgas down in May after hitting record in April

US gas storage about 4% over the five-year normal

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

May 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Friday on higher than expected output and a drop in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plant during spring maintenance.

Also weighing on prices, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration ordered exporters to seek a license to ship ethane to China. Analysts said if energy firms have difficulty selling ethane, they will likely allow it to flow into U.S. gas pipelines, which would increase the supply of gas available and pressure prices.

Gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.5 cents, or 2.1%, to settle at $3.447 per million British thermal units.

For the week, the front-month was up about 3% after holding steady in the prior week.

For the month, the contract was up about 4% after falling 19% in April.

Looking ahead, the premium of futures for October 2025 over November 2025 NGV25-X25 rose to its highest since October 2023 due to bigger increases in the November contract than the October contract. That means the market is likely betting on higher demand and/or lower amounts of gas in storage going into next winter.

Gas stockpiles were around 4% above the five-year (2020-2024) average, and expected to keep growing with energy firms expected to inject more gas than usual into storage again during the week ended May 30 for a seventh week in a row. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 105.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record high of 105.8 bcfd in April.

Energy traders said output reductions this month were primarily due to normal spring maintenance on gas pipelines, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Energy firms usually work on gas pipes when demand is low in the spring and autumn.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 14.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 95.8 bcfd this week to 96.3 bcfd next week and 100.3 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to fall from 14.7 bcfd on Thursday to a preliminary three-week low of 13.9 bcfd on Friday due primarily to reductions at Cheniere Energy's LNG.N plants.

Gas flows to Cheniere's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana were on track to drop from 3.9 bcfd on Thursday to an 11-month low of 3.7 bcfd on Friday, while feedgas to the company's 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas was on track to drop from 2.1 bcfd on Thursday to a two-week low of 1.6 bcfd on Friday.

Energy traders have said they expect total LNG feedgas to remain below April's record high in June now that Cheniere has started maintenance on liquefaction trains and other equipment at Sabine. That work is expected to last about three weeks until around June 22.

Week ended May 30 Forecast

Week ended May 23 Actual

Year ago May 30

Five-year average

May 30

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+109

+101

+94

+98

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,585

2,476

2,886

2,481

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+4.2%

+3.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.52

3.52

2.42

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.64

11.64

10.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.30

12.47

11.10

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

15

15

27

39

27

U.S. GFS CDDs

152

151

136

125

122

U.S. GFS TDDs

167

166

163

164

149

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

105.5

105.4

105.1

101.7

96.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.6

8.0

7.2

N/A

7.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

113.1

113.4

112.2

N/A

103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.2

1.6

1.5

N/A

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

8.0

7.8

7.6

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

15.1

15.1

15.0

13.2

10.4

U.S. Commercial

5.6

5.0

4.6

4.7

5.7

U.S. Residential

5.8

4.8

4.0

4.2

6.6

U.S. Power Plant

33.1

32.0

34.0

34.9

29.7

U.S. Industrial

22.6

22.4

22.2

21.6

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.6

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

74.4

71.3

72.1

72.7

71.4

Total U.S. Demand

99.7

95.8

96.3

N/A

90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

81

82

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

81

82

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

83

83

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 30

Week ended May 23

2024

2023

2022

Wind

10

13

11

10

11

Solar

8

7

5

4

3

Hydro

8

7

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

39

33

42

41

38

Coal

15

13

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

18

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.97

3.09

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.76

1.95

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.25

3.24

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.69

1.85

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.76

2.90

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

4.00

2.90

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.42

3.63

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.94

1.89

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.26

1.35

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

34.20

40.07

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

37.85

40.64

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

49.01

16.97

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

51.60

40.50

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

36.64

23.66

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Nia Williams and David Gregorio)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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