Tesla's Stock Nears A Key Chart Level. Can A Full-Time Musk Drive It Through?

Dow Jones
29 May

The next big technical hurdle for Tesla stock bulls looks to be around $380, where a couple potential resistance levels converge

Tesla Inc.'s investors are in a good mood Thursday, as they look for a now full-time Elon Musk as chief executive to clear the path for the electric-vehicle giant's stock to target a return to record levels.

The stock $(TSLA)$ had a pretty rough start to the year, with the stock plunging 53.8% from its Dec. 17 record close of $479.86 to a six-month low of $221.86 on April 8, to book a loss of $829.9 billion in market capitalization.

Public backlash and investor misgivings about Musk's role as head of President Trump's Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, and his political leanings in Europe, weighed heavily on sales in both the U.S. and overseas.

But the stock has been rebounding as Musk's time at DOGE neared an end. It had already recovered a little more than half what it lost - 54.7% as of Tuesday's close - during its selloff. And late Wednesday, Musk confirmed in a social-media post that the time has come, which helped push the stock up 2.4% in Thursday's premarket.

The stock is now approaching a key technical level roughly at $380, as it marks the convergence of two potential resistance points.

First, the Jan. 2 closing low of $379.28 is one level to watch. That level had stopped the initial selloff from the December high, then provided some support before the stock slid through in early February to trigger the sharpest part of the decline.

Many chart watchers believe prior support levels will morph into resistance when revisited, as those who bought on the way down, and are underwater on their position, may be happy to sell when given the chance to break even.

Another big chart level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the selloff, which comes in at $381.30.

There's a belief among many chart watchers that the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618, which is often referred to as the divine ratio given its prevalence in the natural world, also applies to financial markets.

That provides traders with a target for when a stock is bouncing, and a level to place some take-profit orders. But if the retracement surpasses 61.8%, Fibonacci followers believe the stock is no longer bouncing and has started a new rally on its own.

That makes a full retracement of the selloff the next upside target, which in the case of Tesla's stock would be $479.86.

In comparison, at last week's high, the S&P 500 index SPX had retraced 84.5% of its selloff, from its February record to its April low.

So can Tesla's stock clear the key technical hurdle?

Dan Ives, the prolific Wedbush analyst, believes it can. He said Musk's official departure from the Trump White House "is music to the ears of Tesla shareholders," with Musk now laser-focused on Tesla.

He believes the launch of Tesla's robotaxi service in Texas on June 12 will help usher in the next era of growth for the company and fuel the next leg of the stock's rally.

But keep in mind that with a $500 stock price target, which implies roughly 40% upside, Ives is Wall Street's biggest bull on Tesla.

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