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SO, ABOUT THAT SELL-IN-MAY AND GO AWAY IDEA ...

While April taught investors that buying the dip was a good idea, Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY, says that the messaging from May has been less clear.

His research piece has the title "Don't sell in May and don't go away" but its not as positive as a first glance might seem to imply.

Sometimes the old Wall Street adage that investors should sell in May and go away until November actually works.

But in 2025 that strategy would have failed, at least so far, since the S&P 500 is up 5.4% for the month at the last counting, which would be its strongest month since November and its strongest May since 1997.

This year, the strategist says that the key question going into June is whether May's rally has legs or whether it will "lead to regrets by midsummer?"

History suggests to Savage that July rallies tend to result in lighter summer markets with less investor concern.

But he says: "This year could be different, however, with a number of important risk events up ahead."

In the past 10 years, May and June have been the best months for equity risk, but going back 20 years the best months were actually July and November, according to the note.

This year has seen some seasonality at play in the market in terms of issues such as taxes, half-year-end strategy shifts and elections, according to Savage.

But he highlights a July risk calendar with lots of elements this year including the end of Trump's 90-day tariff pause as well as the end of second quarter earnings season and key central bank meetings.

So markets may be "at a crossroads next month, setting up the possibility of a summer of discontent as tariffs, taxes and policy risks loom in the months ahead," the strategist says.

(Sinéad Carew)

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WALL STREET INDEXES DIP ON TRADE CONCERNS CLICK HERE

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COURTROOM TWISTS ADD TO TARIFF RISKS CLICK HERE