US LNG export feedgas hit record high in April
US gas output hit record high in April
US gas storage about 4% over five-year normal
By Scott DiSavino
May 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday after the long U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend, on a drop in output so far this month, forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected and hotter-than-normal weather this summer that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.
On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.8 cents, or 0.8%, to $3.362 per million British thermal units.
Futures for July, which will soon be the front-month, were unchanged at $3.73 per mmBtu.
That kept the premium of futures for July over June NGM25-N25 near a record high due in part to long-term projections for hotter-than-normal weather in June, July and August.
Even though gas futures were flat last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental exchanges for the first time in three weeks to their lowest since April, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report showed.
Some analysts projected energy firms added a near-normal amount of gas into storage during the week ended May 23 after injecting more gas than usual for five weeks in a row as mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand low.
Gas stockpiles were currently around 4% above the five-year (2020-2024) average. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 105.0 billion cubic feet per day in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.
Energy traders said output reductions so far this month were due in part to maintenance on gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.
Kinder Morgan exchanged a turbine at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26.
Traders have noted the Permian Highway and other pipeline work trapped some gas in the Permian Basin, causing spot gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas to slide into negative territory at least a couple of times over the past week or so, including for Tuesday.
Meteorologists projected the weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 11.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will drop from 96.8 bcfd this week to 95.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday before the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, while the forecast for next week was lower.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.
The LNG feedgas decline this month was mostly due to maintenance reductions at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi under construction and in operation in Texas and Cheniere's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana, and brief unplanned reductions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.
Looking ahead, energy traders said they expect LNG feedgas to remain below April's record high in June with Cheniere planning about three weeks of maintenance on a couple of liquefaction trains at Sabine from around June 2-23.
Week ended May 23 Forecast | Week ended May 16 Actual | Year ago May 23 | Five-year average May 23 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +97 | +110 | +84 | +98 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,472 | 2,375 | 2,792 | 2,382 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +3.8% | +3.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.26 | 3.33 | 2.42 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.21 | 12.40 | 10.12 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.49 | 12.35 | 11.10 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 21 | 36 | 27 | 39 | 32 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 133 | 122 | 136 | 125 | 114 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 154 | 158 | 163 | 164 | 146 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 105.5 | 105.4 | 105.2 | 101.7 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.6 | 7.6 | 6.7 | N/A | 7.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 113.1 | 113.0 | 111.9 | N/A | 103.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | N/A | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.1 | 16.2 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 10.4 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.7 |
U.S. Residential | 5.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 6.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 33.1 | 31.9 | 32.5 | 34.9 | 29.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.6 | 22.4 | 22.2 | 21.6 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 74.4 | 71.4 | 70.8 | 72.7 | 71.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.7 | 96.8 | 95.4 | N/A | 90.3 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 82 | 81 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 82 | 82 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 83 | 83 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended May 30 | Week ended May 23 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 9 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 31 | 33 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 12 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.93 | 3.00 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.61 | 2.08 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.41 | 2.93 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.55 | 2.02 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.74 | 2.81 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.12 | 2.25 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.46 | 2.97 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -0.03 | 0.86 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.31 | 1.37 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 30.00 | 33.30 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 32.50 | 33.14 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 41.73 | 39.21 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 25.64 | 25.00 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 12.91 | 9.45 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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