US natgas prices edge up on lower output, higher demand forecasts

Reuters
27 May
US natgas prices edge up on lower output, higher demand forecasts

US LNG export feedgas hit record high in April

US gas output hit record high in April

US gas storage about 4% over five-year normal

By Scott DiSavino

May 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday after the long U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend, on a drop in output so far this month, forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected and hotter-than-normal weather this summer that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.

On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.8 cents, or 0.8%, to $3.362 per million British thermal units.

Futures for July, which will soon be the front-month, were unchanged at $3.73 per mmBtu.

That kept the premium of futures for July over June NGM25-N25 near a record high due in part to long-term projections for hotter-than-normal weather in June, July and August.

Even though gas futures were flat last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental exchanges for the first time in three weeks to their lowest since April, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report showed.

Some analysts projected energy firms added a near-normal amount of gas into storage during the week ended May 23 after injecting more gas than usual for five weeks in a row as mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand low.

Gas stockpiles were currently around 4% above the five-year (2020-2024) average. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 105.0 billion cubic feet per day in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.

Energy traders said output reductions so far this month were due in part to maintenance on gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Kinder Morgan exchanged a turbine at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26.

Traders have noted the Permian Highway and other pipeline work trapped some gas in the Permian Basin, causing spot gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas to slide into negative territory at least a couple of times over the past week or so, including for Tuesday.

Meteorologists projected the weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 11.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will drop from 96.8 bcfd this week to 95.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday before the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, while the forecast for next week was lower.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The LNG feedgas decline this month was mostly due to maintenance reductions at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi under construction and in operation in Texas and Cheniere's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana, and brief unplanned reductions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.

Looking ahead, energy traders said they expect LNG feedgas to remain below April's record high in June with Cheniere planning about three weeks of maintenance on a couple of liquefaction trains at Sabine from around June 2-23.

Week ended May 23 Forecast

Week ended May 16 Actual

Year ago May 23

Five-year average

May 23

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+97

+110

+84

+98

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,472

2,375

2,792

2,382

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+3.8%

+3.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.26

3.33

2.42

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.21

12.40

10.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.49

12.35

11.10

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

21

36

27

39

32

U.S. GFS CDDs

133

122

136

125

114

U.S. GFS TDDs

154

158

163

164

146

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

105.5

105.4

105.2

101.7

96.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.6

7.6

6.7

N/A

7.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

113.1

113.0

111.9

N/A

103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.2

1.6

1.6

N/A

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

8.0

7.6

7.5

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

15.1

16.2

15.5

13.2

10.4

U.S. Commercial

5.6

5.0

4.7

4.7

5.7

U.S. Residential

5.8

4.8

4.1

4.2

6.6

U.S. Power Plant

33.1

31.9

32.5

34.9

29.7

U.S. Industrial

22.6

22.4

22.2

21.6

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.6

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

74.4

71.4

70.8

72.7

71.4

Total U.S. Demand

99.7

96.8

95.4

N/A

90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

82

81

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

82

82

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

83

83

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 30

Week ended May 23

2024

2023

2022

Wind

9

13

11

10

11

Solar

6

7

5

4

3

Hydro

7

7

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

31

33

42

41

38

Coal

12

13

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

18

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.93

3.00

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.61

2.08

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.41

2.93

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.55

2.02

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.74

2.81

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.12

2.25

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.46

2.97

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-0.03

0.86

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.31

1.37

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

30.00

33.30

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

32.50

33.14

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

41.73

39.21

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

25.64

25.00

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

12.91

9.45

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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