US LNG export feedgas hit record high in April
US gas output hit record high in April
US gas storage about 3% over five-year normal
By Scott DiSavino
May 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell around 1% on Wednesday on a smaller than previously expected decline in daily output so far this month after a 10%-price jump on Tuesday forced some traders to cover some short positions.
Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.4 cents, or 0.7%, to $3.403 per million British thermal units at 9:07 a.m. EDT (1307 GMT).
Analysts said heating and cooling demand should remain low across much of the country in coming weeks, allowing utilities to keep adding more gas into storage than normal for this time of year.
Gas stockpiles were already around 3% above the five-year (2020-2024) average. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 104.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to slide to a preliminary two-week low of 103.9 bcfd on Wednesday, down from 105.0 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 105.2 bcfd during the prior seven days. That daily output decline was smaller than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Energy traders noted those output reductions were due in part to maintenance on some gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.
Kinder Morgan said it will perform a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd.
Meteorologists projected the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 6.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will drop from 99.4 bcfd this week to 94.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big liquefied natural gas export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.
The LNG feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to maintenance reductions at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and brief unplanned reductions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.
Looking ahead, energy traders said they expect LNG feedgas to remain below April's record high in June with Cheniere planning to conduct about three weeks of maintenance on a couple of liquefaction trains at its 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana from around June 2-23.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at a six-week high of around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a five-week high of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended May 16 Forecast | Week ended May 9 Actual | Year ago May 16 | Five-year average May 16 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +106 | +110 | +78 | +87 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,361 | 2,255 | 2,708 | 2,285 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +3.3% | +2.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 2.42 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.54 | 12.28 | 10.12 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.52 | 11.97 | 11.10 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 45 | 46 | 21 | 39 | 43 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 115 | 112 | 120 | 107 | 99 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 150 | 158 | 141 | 146 | 142 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.9 | 105.4 | 105.4 | 101.0 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | N/A | 7.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 111.1 | 112.8 | 112.2 | N/A | 103.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | N/A | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 10.4 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
U.S. Residential | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 6.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.0 | 33.0 | 30.7 | 31.7 | 29.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.3 | 22.6 | 22.4 | 21.6 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 71.6 | 74.4 | 70.3 | 69.6 | 71.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 96.3 | 99.4 | 94.9 | N/A | 90.3 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 82 | 83 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 81 | 83 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 83 | 84 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended May 23 | Week ended May 16 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 16 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 36 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 13 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.15 | 2.96 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.23 | 1.98 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.61 | 2.50 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.10 | 1.84 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.96 | 2.71 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.43 | 2.18 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.77 | 2.59 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.40 | 0.46 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.26 | 1.27 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 34.09 | 32.03 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 39.20 | 34.79 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 44.51 | 27.26 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 34.10 | 14.50 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 18.20 | 12.33 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Joe Bavier)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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