US natgas prices ease on smaller-than-expected decline in output

Reuters
21 May
US natgas prices ease on smaller-than-expected decline in output

US LNG export feedgas hit record high in April

US gas output hit record high in April

US gas storage about 3% over five-year normal

By Scott DiSavino

May 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell around 1% on Wednesday on a smaller than previously expected decline in daily output so far this month after a 10%-price jump on Tuesday forced some traders to cover some short positions.

Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.4 cents, or 0.7%, to $3.403 per million British thermal units at 9:07 a.m. EDT (1307 GMT).

Analysts said heating and cooling demand should remain low across much of the country in coming weeks, allowing utilities to keep adding more gas into storage than normal for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles were already around 3% above the five-year (2020-2024) average. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 104.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to slide to a preliminary two-week low of 103.9 bcfd on Wednesday, down from 105.0 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 105.2 bcfd during the prior seven days. That daily output decline was smaller than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Energy traders noted those output reductions were due in part to maintenance on some gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Kinder Morgan said it will perform a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd.

Meteorologists projected the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 6.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will drop from 99.4 bcfd this week to 94.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big liquefied natural gas export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The LNG feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to maintenance reductions at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and brief unplanned reductions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.

Looking ahead, energy traders said they expect LNG feedgas to remain below April's record high in June with Cheniere planning to conduct about three weeks of maintenance on a couple of liquefaction trains at its 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana from around June 2-23.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a six-week high of around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a five-week high of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended May 16 Forecast

Week ended May 9 Actual

Year ago May 16

Five-year average

May 16

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+106

+110

+78

+87

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,361

2,255

2,708

2,285

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+3.3%

+2.6%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.43

3.43

2.42

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.54

12.28

10.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.52

11.97

11.10

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

45

46

21

39

43

U.S. GFS CDDs

115

112

120

107

99

U.S. GFS TDDs

150

158

141

146

142

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

103.9

105.4

105.4

101.0

96.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.0

7.4

6.8

N/A

7.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

111.1

112.8

112.2

N/A

103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.5

2.3

2.3

N/A

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

7.7

7.4

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

15.0

15.0

15.0

13.0

10.4

U.S. Commercial

5.1

5.6

5.1

4.8

5.7

U.S. Residential

5.0

5.9

4.9

4.2

6.6

U.S. Power Plant

32.0

33.0

30.7

31.7

29.7

U.S. Industrial

22.3

22.6

22.4

21.6

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.6

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

71.6

74.4

70.3

69.6

71.4

Total U.S. Demand

96.3

99.4

94.9

N/A

90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

82

83

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

81

83

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

83

84

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 23

Week ended May 16

2024

2023

2022

Wind

16

13

11

10

11

Solar

7

8

5

4

3

Hydro

7

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

34

36

42

41

38

Coal

13

15

16

17

21

Nuclear

18

18

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.15

2.96

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.23

1.98

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.61

2.50

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.10

1.84

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.96

2.71

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.43

2.18

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.77

2.59

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.40

0.46

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.26

1.27

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

34.09

32.03

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

39.20

34.79

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

44.51

27.26

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

34.10

14.50

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

18.20

12.33

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Joe Bavier)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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